WTPN22 PHNC 221300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 108.2W TO 16.5N 116.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 108.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
108.6W, APPROXIMATELY 423NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM (28 TO 29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND EQUATORWARD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF 92E INTO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR INVEST 91E INTO A LARGER
SPINNER. ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF 92E AND
FOR IT TO TAK A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231300Z.//
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