WTPN21 PHNC 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220651ZAUG26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 2220700).THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 118.2W IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 119.0W, APPROXIMATELY 699NM SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD DISORGANIZED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION ALONG ITS
SOUTH WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WARM (28 TO 29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF 91E INTO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 48 HOUR
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THIS SYSTEM
IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
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