WTPN21 PHNC 220700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210651ZAUG2026//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1N 115.5W TO 15.1N 116.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 115.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.2N 114.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 115.6W, APPROXIMATELY 600NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
SLIGHTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28 TO 29
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF 91E
INTO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 210700)
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230700Z.//
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