FXPQ50 PGUM 222014
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
614 AM ChST Sun Aug 23 2026

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly sunny skies with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
have been seen in the Marianas Waters this morning. Numerous showers
are seen to the southeast in a monsoon band feeding into Typhoon 
Saudel far to the north-northwest.

&&

.Discussion...
The Marianas will continue to receive swell from both Saudel and the
new Tropical Depression 19W well to our west. There will be little
else in terms of direct tropical cyclone effects the next several
days. A monsoon band feeding into Saudel could create copious on and
off showers for the Marianas this week though, especially starting
Tuesday, with a first round possible tonight.

The swells settle down by Monday or Tuesday, but then get riled up
again by the end of the week. Another Small Craft and High Surf
Advisory appear likely around the next weekend.

&&

.Tropical Systems...
Typhoon Saudel is near 20.4N and 143.6E. It is moving northwest away
from the Marianas, and is expected to turn slightly to the west-
northwest later. Saudel's maximum winds have increased to 120 mph,
and more intensification is expected.

For more information on Typhoon Saudel, please refer to the Tropical
Cyclone Warning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO
header WTPN31 PGTW, and the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory from the
National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM.

Saudel is now joined by Tropical Depression 19W northwest of Yap. 19W
has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, and is expected to intensify
briefly for a limited time before weakening again. It is moving
northwest at 10 mph but is expected to make a turn toward the
northeast.

For more information on Tropical Depression 19W, please refer to the
Tropical Cyclone Warning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under
WMO header WTPN33 PGTW, and the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory from
the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ33 PGUM.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Wet and unsettled weather is expected across eastern Micronesia 
today and into the work week as a broad disturbance treks to the 
west-northwest over the next couple of days. High-end scattered to 
widespread, locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will be 
possible as the disturbance moves across the region and west to 
southwest, monsoonal inflow ramps up. Gentle to moderate winds are 
expected at Pohnpei and Kosrae through early this week with moderate 
to fresh winds expected at Majuro through Monday. Occasional gusts up
to 30 knots will also be possible at Majuro. Depending on how high 
the south winds end up getting later today at Majuro, a Small Craft 
Advisory may be warranted. Regardless, choppy seas and strong gusts 
appear likely. Combined seas of 5 to 6 feet are expected at all 
forecast points through today and seas will increase at Majuro 
tonight, potentially up to 6 to 8 feet.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Invest 97W was upgraded to a tropical depression overnight by the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center, now TD 19W. 19W will continue to pull 
away from the area as it treks to the north-northwest. Shower chances
have greatly diminished as a result, with shower coverage dropping 
to high-end scattered at best through early Monday. Isolated 
thunderstorms will continue to be possible though. Moderate to fresh 
southwest winds will persist through today at both Palau and Yap, and
drop to mostly moderate tonight. Though, fresh winds will still be 
possible at Yap through tonight. Near-gale force gusts will continue 
through today at both sites, and potentially into tonight at Yap. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through 
tonight at Chuuk with shower coverage likely increasing to numerous 
on Monday. Seasup to 10 feet will continue to be possible today at 
both Yap and Palau, but may be stubborn to fall below hazardous 
levels at Yap until tonight. As such, the Small Craft Advisory was 
extended for Yap through 5am Monday. Combined seas are expected to 
hover around 5 feet or so over the next couple of days at Chuuk.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for GUZ001.

MP...High Rip Current Risk until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM ChST this afternoon for MPZ001>003.

Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM ChST this afternoon for PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

Marianas: Stanko
East/West Micronesia: Whisnant