FXPQ50 PGUM 150222 CCA AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Tiyan GU 1222 PM ChST Thu Oct 15 2026 correction to 29W in western Micronesia update section .Update... With the first warning going out on Tropical Depression 29W, went ahead and ran cyclone grids. This raised the wind speeds and the PoP's. Those are the main changes this morning, but stay on the watch for a Special Weather Statement later this morning, and possibly tropical cyclone watches in the afternoon. && .Hydrology Update... The models are predicting about 5 inches of rain near the center, so we're looking at more like 6 to 12 inches likely near the center of Tropical Depression 29W. Therefore, contacted the National Water Center and asked them to add us as a Limited area on the Flood Hazard Outlook. Once we can narrow down where 29W is going, we might ask for at least part of the Marianas to be upgraded from Limited to Considerable. && .Tropical Systems Update... Tropical Depression (TD) 28W is currently located south of Iwo To near 22.7N 141.1E, and it is moving northwest at 14 mph. 28W is expected to turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are around 35 mph, and it is expected to weaken tonight. Satellite reveals a weak low- level circulation center with isolated thunderstorms along the northern and southeast flanks, with little convective activity elsewhere. 28W is expected to continue to weaken through the end of the week as it opens into a surface wave, probably Friday night or Saturday, somewhere west of Iwo To. For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. Invest 96W has strengthened, and is now known as Tropical Depression 29W. 29W is located to the north-northeast of Pohnpei, near 10.6N 160.1E. Himawari infra-red satellite imagery this morning shows a somewhat sheared system, with numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms located along its southwestern through northwestern flanks, focused over and north of Pohnpei. The low- level circulation center and eastern flank are partially exposed, with patchy showers seen across the area including the northern Marshall Islands. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to show a Marianas passage sometime between late Saturday evening and Sunday night. Although most tracks take the developing cyclone directly through the southern Marianas, individual model tracks range from passing to the south of Guam, to far north of Saipan, potentially as a well-developed typhoon (sustained winds 74+ mph). Uncertainty remains high in the eventual track and intensity of Invest 96W. Residents of the Marianas are urged to begin making preparations, stay informed, and monitor for updates from the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, as well as local emergency management. For more information on Invest 96W, see bulletins issued by JTWC under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW. && .Eastern Micronesia Update... A few changes were needed to the forecast package, starting out with Invest 96W being elevated to Tropical Depression 29W. Due this this feature building in strength, the Special Weather Statement (SPS) and Small Craft Advisory (for Kosrae) were extended through the afternoon package. Over night ASCAT shows winds near Kosrae around 25 knots. Winds this evening at Kosrae are expected to diminish below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Numerous locally heavy showers remain in the forecast for Pohnpei, and scattered showers for Majuro. Seas are expected to remain 6 to 8 feet in the west and tapering down to 6 feet in the easts. Winds near Pohnpei and Kosrae are expected to be moderate tostrong with gusts to near gale while 29W remains near by. Winds near Majuro are expected to be gentle to moderate. && .Western Micronesia Update... No changes were needed at Yap or Palau, where the weather forecast is kind of steady state right now. The changes at Chuuk were minor, mainly to reword the headline from ending tonight to ending Sunday. Especially Saturday and Sunday will likely need a Small Craft Advisory. This will be due to Tropical Depression 29W and the enhanced monsoon winds flowing into it. && .Prev discussion... /issued 744 PM ChST Wed Oct 14 2026/ Marianas Synopsis... Visible satellite and Doppler radar reveal partly cloudy skies and isolated showers across the region. Altimetry indicates combined seas of 3 to 4 feet. Discussion... A surface trough extending between Invest 96W to the east-southeast and Tropical Depression 28W to the north-northwest will encroach upon Saipan and Tinian tonight and linger through Thursday, bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The zones were split due to short-term differences in shower coverage as drier air will remain over Guam and Rota. Island-effect showers may be possible for these islands, but easterly winds are expected to advect these showers over western coastal waters, similar to the pattern that occurred today. Afterwards, isolated showers will return for the entire region through Friday night. Then, weather conditions may begin to deteriorate Saturday as Invest 96W potentially tracks through the Marianas as a tropical storm or typhoon. Widespread locally heavy showers, near-gale winds, and thunderstorms are forecast from Saturday night through Sunday night, with a peak of the worst conditions around Sunday. Shortly afterwards, shower coverage looks to decrease to isolated with light and variable winds possibly returning after Monday night. Residents of the Marianas should continue storm preparations and stay up to date with the forecasts in the coming days. Marine... Altimetry data indicates combined seas of 3 to 4 feet. Seas are expected to increase a foot or two through Friday. Then, seas will significantly increase sometime Friday night ahead of Invest 96W, with conditions hazardous to small craft possible through Monday. Light east winds will become light to moderate northeasterlies by late Thursday, before rapidly increasing through the weekend. There is a moderate risk of rip currents along north and east facing reefs at least through Thursday night with dangerous surf conditions probable this weekend. Those with marine interests should monitor the forecasts in the coming days. Hydrology... Invest 96W continues to develop north of Pohnpei and Kosrae. Ensemble model guidance continues to show a passage anywhere between Guam to north of Saipan as a tropical storm or typhoon. Uncertainty is still high regarding timing, location, and intensity, but the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding continues to increase approaching this weekend. This is expected to produce 5 to 8 inches of rainfall between Saturday and Monday, with localized amounts up to 12 inches possible. As showers are likely to persist, consistent rainfall is likely to saturate the soils enough to increase chance for mudslides. Residents on these islands need to closely monitor this developing situation as flood watches, advisories, and flash flood warnings could be issued later this weekend. Tropical Systems... Tropical Depression (TD) 28W is currently located south of Iwo To near 21.0N 143.1E, and it is moving northwest at 13 mph. 28W is expected to maintain this general course with a slight decrease in forward speed through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are around 30 mph, and it is expected to maintain this intensity through tonight, remaining a tropical depression as itweakens slightly through Thursday. Satellite reveals a weak low-level circulation center with isolated thunderstorms along the northern and southeast flanks, with little convective activity elsewhere. 28W is expected to continue to weaken through the end of the week as it opens into a surface wave, somewhere west of Iwo To. For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. A developing tropical disturbance, Invest 96W, is located to the northeast of Pohnpei, near 9.0N 160.4E. As of 5 AM ChST this morning, Invest 96W remains the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) by the JTWC, which means it is expected to develop into a significant tropical cyclone (a tropical depression) within 24 hours. Himawari visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows a very broad, elongated disturbance stretching along roughly 10N, with numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms located along its western and southwestern flanks, focused over and south of Pohnpei. The low-level circulation center and eastern flank are mostly exposed, with patchy showers seen across the area including the northern Marshall Islands. Lines of thunderstorms are seen along a convergence boundary within 96W's southwest flank, which extend east-southeast from around Chuuk Lagoon to Kosrae. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to show the development of a broad tropical cyclone over the next few days with most tracks depicting a Marianas passage sometime between late Saturday evening and Sunday night. Although most tracks take the developing cyclone directly through the southern Marianas, individual model tracks range from passing to the south of Guam, to far north of Saipan, potentially as a well-developed typhoon (sustained winds 74+ mph). Uncertainty remains high in the eventual track and intensity of Invest 96W. Residents of the Marianas are urged to begin making preparations, stay informed, and monitor for updates from the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, as well as local emergency management. For more information on Invest 96W, see bulletins issued by JTWC under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW. Eastern Micronesia... Invest 96W, currently centered northeast of Pohnpei near 9.0N 160.4E, continues to dominate the weather pattern across the region. Bands of scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within the strong convergence south of 96W's elongated center, stretching eastward from south of Pohnpei to Kosrae, then extending east-northeast to around Majuro Atoll. As Invest 96W shifts west- northwest to pass Pohnpei to the north, winds and showers are expected to increase tonight through Thursday night, with gusty fresh to strong westerlies expected to develop over the island and adjacent coastal waters, with locally heavy rainfall possible at times. Meanwhile, conditions should gradually ease over Kosrae tonight into Thursday as 96W shifts away. A Small Craft Advisory was issued for Pohnpei, in effect from this evening through early Friday morning, as sustained strong winds over the coastal waters will produce choppy sea conditions hazardous to small craft. The Small Craft Advisory for Kosrae expires late tonight as sustained winds diminish below hazardous levels. Combined seas of 6 to 9 feet are expected, with the highest seas expected over the northern waters of Kosrae and Pohnpei. A Special Weather Statement was reissued for Kosrae and Pohnpei to highlight the unsettled weather associated with Invest 96W, but Kosrae may be dropped from the next issuance as conditions are expected to improve there overnight. Western Micronesia... The convergence zone within the southern peripheries of the monsoon axis continuesto produce patchy showers and some thunderstorms across much of western Micronesia south of 10N, bringing said weather conditions to Palau and Yap the next few days. After, conditions are expected to steadily improve as the convergence zone weakens under the expansion of the monsoon trough, mainly under the influence of developing Invest 96W that will move across the Marianas during the weekend. Chuuk is well within an enhanced monsoon surge building along the southwestern fringes of Invest 96W, which is likely to deepen over the coming days, bringing numerous heavy showers and some thunderstorms tonight through Thursday night. As 96W moves away from the area, winds will continue to increase across Chuuk during the weekend, potentially reaching near gale-force by Saturday. Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet across Palau and Yap waters are expected to drop a foot or two over the next few days, to begin increasing this weekend as distant swells from 96W arrive to the region. Combined seas of 4 to 5 feet near Chuuk are expected to increase for much of the week, potentially reaching levels hazardous to small craft over the weekend. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ East Micronesia: Bowsher Marianas and West Micronesia/Tropical Update: Stanko Marianas: Mesa East Micronesia/Tropical: DeCou West Micronesia: Montvila