ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZAUG2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZAUG2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240152ZAUG2026//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240153ZAUG2026//
REF/D/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZAUG2026//
NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF D IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24AUG26 0000Z, TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.9N 136.3E, APPROXIMATELY 487 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS GUSTING TO
135 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 24AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.3N 107.6E, APPROXIMATELY 104 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (3) AT 24AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (ATSANI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 137.2E, APPROXIMATELY 346 NM NORTH OF YAP, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO
40 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN33 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.6N 119.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
WEST OF TAIPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NOW PARTIALLY OVER LAND
WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST-SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION. ANIMATED RADAR DATA SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
MODERATE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND MORE CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE WEST COAST OF TAIWAN. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE REGION DEPICT GENERALLY SOUTHERN WINDS OF
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35KTS, PARTICULARLY FROM THE PENGHU
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15KTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 C), AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 98W. GFS STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER WATER FOR ABOUT
6 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY
APPROACHES LAND, WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE CIRCULATION OVER LAND MORE
QUICKLY, DENYING TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP FURTHER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF D (WTPN21 PGTW 240200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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