ABPW10 PGTW 150100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/150100Z-150600ZOCT2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141951ZOCT2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141952ZOCT2026//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14OCT26 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 142100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 14OCT26 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 160.5E, APPROXIMATELY 950 NM EAST OF NAVSTA GUAM,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO
40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 142100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 27W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
41.5N 163.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 49.7N 169.1E, APPROXIMATELY 806 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PETROPAVLOVSK, RUSSIA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH
TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION THAT
HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. A 141230Z OSCAT
PASS REVEALS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
TROPICAL TRANSITION DEFINED BY A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ADVECTED OVER
THE CIRCULATION, STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT, HIGH (35-40KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND FRIGID (16-17C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF SS 27W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH A BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS,
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS
PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38 TO 43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.9S 164.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 165.0W, APPROXIMATELY 496 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 142041Z 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY. A 142003Z ASCAT PASS EMPHASIZES A
BROAD AND OPEN CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED (20-25KT) WINDS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM FROM THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). THE CURRENT
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92P SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO A LOWER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM//
NNNN