FXAK69 PAFG 162247 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 247 PM AKDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... -Isolated to scattered light snow showers are possible through Sunday night. *Accumulation totals light in areas of lower elevations. Higher elevations could see snow totals up to 3 inches by Sunday. -High Temperatures could drop to below freezing through Saturday in the wake of a cold front moving through this weekend. *The coolest temperatures mostly in Central Interior. West Coast and Western Interior... -Rain/snow showers possible through the weekend, with low stratus and patchy morning fog likely in the West Coast. -Wind gusts will weaken for the Western Interior through Friday evening, while weaker gusts along the West Coast persist through Friday night. -Temperatures along the West Coast will average in high 20s and low 30s through Sunday, while the Western Interior will trend slightly cooler with temperatures ranging between mid to upper 20s. North Slope and Brooks Range... -A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect till 4pm Friday for the Northeast Arctic Coast due to visibility restrictions from blowing snow. *Visibility could drop to as low as 1/2 a statute mile. -Northeasterly gusty winds along the Arctic Coastline will persist taper-off through the evening hours. -Light snowfall is expected to continue throughout the North Slope and Brooks Range throughout the weekend, with total accumulations between 1 to 3 inches expected. Areas of higher terrain may see higher accumulations. && .SYNOPSIS..The western coastal areas are expected to continue to receive breezy conditions through Friday night while it is expected to stay breezy for the Arctic Coast through Saturday. Into Saturday morning, some snow accumulations on the lighter-side(up to 1-3 inched in total look to occur mainly for much of the Central & Western Interior & the Eastern Brooks Range from trofing over that area. For the eastern Brooks Range & the eastern North Slope, that trofing also looks to bring some occasional light snowfall into Saturday morning. As temperatures remain well below freezing for the & gusty winds remain in place primarily for the eastern North Slope through Friday afternoon, visibility-reducing(as low as 1/2 SM) blowing snow will occur. A Winter Weather Advisory is out for that through Friday afternoon. Rather gusty winds look to move back in for the West Coast & the Arctic Coast starting late Saturday night & lasting through Sunday night as lower pressure to the southwest & northwest(an arctic cold front to the northwest & Bering Sea low to the southwest) approaches a ridge of high pressure that will be situated over the state, tightening the pressure gradient. That ridge will shift eastward into next week. The arctic front approaching the region from the northwest will will bring temperatures down to more seasonable values for this time of year for this weekend & keep them that way into next week. && .SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday Night/...A SFC low located over the north-central Gulf of Alaska today will generally drift eastward through Saturday while steadily weakening. It has sent shortwave trofs of energy rotating northwestward around it. One is situated stretched out over portions of the western & central Interior & the eastern Brooks range, today. It has brought with it enough moisture for some increased chances for some light snowfall for that area into Saturday. The far western portions of the Interior, the west coast, & far southeastern portions of the Interior are expected to stay on the drier side through the period. Total snow accumulations are expected to be around 1 to 3 inches with the Fairbanks area expected to receive less than 1/2 inch late Friday night through Saturday morning. The light snow could mix with some light rain this afternoon into the evening, especially for areas around the Interior that have reached above freezing this afternoon. The blowing snow over the Beaufort Sea Coast caused by the tightened pressure gradient between higher pressure to the north & lower pressure to the south & the temperatures remaining well below freezing is expected to subside through this evening due to the pressure gradient relaxing causing the winds to decrease. Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow is being allowed to expire. A tightened gradient will also continue to cause some gusty conditions into Friday night along the West Coast from higher pressure located to the west. As we approach the later parts of the short term forecast period, an arctic front will approach from the northwest, which will cool high temperatures around 5 degrees over the Interior on average from the upper 30s to around 40 to the low to mid 30s for the weekend. && .LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...The Arctic front pushing southeastward that was talked about in the short term section will bring temperatures down to more around normal/seasonable values over our entire area of responsibility. As we progress through the long term forecast period & approach mid-week, ensembles indicate that the approaching Bering Sea low center will miss our region to the south, moving eastward more toward the Bristol Bay / Alaska Peninsula area & the northern Gulf of Alaska. This continues the general current weather pattern that has already been in place, a SE to NW moving warm front & shortwaves wrapping around the parent low located in the northern Gulf, bringing breezier/gustier conditions & some snow to the Alaska Range, the Interior area, & the West Coast. The biggest difference is that when this low enters the northern Gulf, it looks to be a bit stronger & have an Atmospheric River associated with it, which may bring enough moisture to bring appreciable snowfall to the Alaska Range & have enough moisture associated with it to override the shadowing/downsloping effects from the Alaska Range to even bring the Interior areas some appreciable snowfall, perhaps the most snow we have seen, so far, this season. Aside from the West Coast, temperatures may struggle to make it above the freezing mark from the latter half of the weekend & lasting at least into next week as is indicated by 850mb model forecast temperatures getting about 5 degrees Celsius colder than the current values. Coastal Hazard Potential...No coastal flooding concerns are anticipated at this time... && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ804-805. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ801- 814-815-854-861. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802- 805-806-813-852-853-856-860. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ807. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ808. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ809. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ811- 850. Brisk Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ813- 814-859-860. Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ815- 861. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ815-860. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ855. Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ860. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Chambers SYNOPSIS...Chambers SHORT TERM...Chambers LONG TERM...Chambers COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...Chambers