FXAK68 PAFC 230037 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 437 PM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday evening)... Satellite imagery reveals an upper-level trough extending south from Western to Central Alaska down through Southern Alaska. On the east side of this trough, moisture continues to lift up Cook Inlet and northward through the Gulf of Alaska. Rain will continue across the Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and the western half of Southcentral through tonight. Showers will taper off through tonight into early Sunday morning. Sunday will feature clearer, calmer, and sunnier conditions across much of Southcentral for Sunday. Some showers will work into the northeast portion of the Copper River Basin by Sunday afternoon and evening as an upper-level shortwave moves westward across the area from Yukon, Canada. Highs across Anchorage, Seward, and Kodiak look to reach into the middle 60s for highs Sunday thanks in part to drier northerly flow. Monday will also feature quiet and warm weather across Southcentral. However, clouds will build from west to east across the area ahead of the next system approaching from the west. The ridge responsible for the nice weather across Southcentral Sunday and most of Monday will weaken as flow becomes west-southwest in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere. Shortwave energy ahead of the main eastward moving trough across the Bering Sea from Kamchatka will begin to move over western portions of Southcentral by late Monday night into Tuesday. Rain will break out across western portions of Southcentral, including the Mat-Su Valleys, the Kenai Peninsula, and Anchorage, by late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Rain picks up in intensity through Tuesday afternoon and evening across Southcentral, even across the Copper River Basin where it has been pretty dry for a while. The main area of lift associated with the Bering Sea trough will move across the area from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)... Radar and satellite imagery this morning show the heaviest rainfall associated with the front that brought steady rain overnight across Southwest Alaska progressing east into Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley. Behind the front, rain has tapered to showers across the Kuskokwim Delta as gusty northwesterly winds build up through this morning over Nunivak Island, the Kuskokwim Delta, and the eastern Bering. Rain will dissipate from west to east across interior Southwest through tonight as the upper level trough digs south across western Alaska, eventually forming a closed upper low in the western Gulf by Sunday morning. High pressure building in across the Bering behind this system throughout today will help to enhance northwesterly gap winds through favored gaps and passes on the Pacific side of the northern Alaska Peninsula this afternoon through tonight. The patterns continues to remain progressive as attention then shifts farther upstream in the western Bering. By tonight through Sunday morning, the next round of shortwaves moving east out of Kamchatka and lifting out of the North Pacific interact and phase together, allowing for a surface low to become better organized and strengthen as it tracks northeastward across the Bering for Sunday. As the system develops today, a warm and unstable airmass brings a small chance (10 to 20%) for a few lightning strikes to accompany showers moving over the western Aleutians through early this afternoon. As the surface low and associated upper-level circulation become better organized and strengthens on Sunday across the western Bering, Southwest Alaska will get a short break in the weather as the ridge pushes east. Meanwhile, south to southwesterly small- craft winds pick up across much of the Bering and Aleutians with a small swath of gale-force winds expected across the northern Bering and St. Matthew Island. Light to moderate rainfall pushing east across the Bering reaches the Pribilof Islands Sunday morning before reaching the Southwest coast by Sunday evening. Steady rain continues across all of Southwest Alaska through Monday as a stream of moisture from the North Pacific and a weak shortwave rounding the base of the trough reinforces the front. Gusty onshore winds begin to relax Monday morning as the low pull farther away to the north. The pattern continues to look active and progressive through early next week as additional systems are expected to move into the western Bering. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... Wednesday, model divergence remains high. Both ECMWF and GFS advertise a low entering the southwestern Bering Sea, however, the EC shows a stronger low moving in, with stronger winds and a precipitation core dragged in from the northern Pacific. The GFS solution is more muted, with a weak low pressure system, loose pressure gradients, favoring weaker winds and lighter precipitation across the Western Aleutians. GFS and EC however are more progressive, bringing the low into the northwestern Bering by Thursday morning, with the Canadian solution lagging the low still in the southwest Bering, over the Western Aleutians. By Friday agreement improves, with increasing consensus that the low moves into the eastern Bering Southwest mainland by Friday afternoon. The low does not slow on its track across Nunivak Island, Kuskokwim Delta, and over greater Bristol Bay by Saturday morning. Widespread small craft advisory winds with smaller areas of gales will dive across the Pribilof Islands late Friday afternoon, and across the western Alaska Peninsula by Saturday morning. && .AVIATION... PANC...A weak Turnagain wind may come into the airport at times this evening but this is a low probability (20%) due to rain and weak pressure gradients. Rain will continue through early this evening before tapering off. High pressure will build in overnight, leading to the possibility of fog and low stratus. The only thing that may hinder this would be higher clouds left behind by the parting trough. && $$