FXAK68 PAFC 170034 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 434 PM AKDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Discussion: The vertically stacked low continues to spin in the central Gulf as it slowly progresses northeastwards towards Southeast Alaska through the weekend. The diminishing of showers along the coast early this afternoon will be short-lived as the next shortwave trough rotating along the northern periphery of the low reaches the Gulf coast by late this afternoon. Shower coverage is expected to pick back up through Saturday morning for the northern Gulf coast and Prince William Sound with the arrival of the shortwave and as the low center nears the coast. Any lingering chances of precipitation for inland areas continues to decrease through this evening, with mainly dry conditions expected through Sunday as off-shore flow takes over. Snow levels will stay fairly consistent around 2500' as the low translates across the Gulf, so will still see rain changing over to snow at higher elevations while showers still persist. A weak front will move across the Alaska interior Saturday morning. Colder northwesterly flow will help to dry things out, but models are hinting that the front could squeeze out some light precipitation of the Upper Susitna and Copper Basin. However, overall confidence is low (20-40%) that any precipitation out of this frontal passage will amount to anything too impactful. Cooler temperatures will move in behind this system with low temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s for most of inland Southcentral for Sunday morning. Looking ahead to early next week, a Bering Sea low will send its front into the Gulf, bringing an uptick in winds across the Gulf and along the coast for Monday. Model spread remains fairly high with regards to a potential triple-point low spinning up in the Gulf, but expect precipitation to begin to overspread Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai by early Monday. -JH/PP && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Showery conditions will taper off across Southwest Alaska tonight and the Alaska Peninsula as residual low pressure dissipates over the area. Rain is expected to be the primary precipitation type during the daytime hours, however, overnight temperatures may dip below freezing, allowing for any precipitation to fall as snow or a rain/snow mix. A slowly decaying front producing southerly small craft winds and light rain currently situated over Adak will push eastward this evening, reaching the Pribilofs and Unalaska by Saturday morning. Benign conditions expected through most of the weekend for Southwest Alaska until the next front moves in Sunday afternoon. By Saturday afternoon, the front, then situated over Unimak Island and False Pass, will be significantly diminishing in strength. However, behind it, a developing compact low from the North Pacific will track northeast, passing the Adak and Atka area Saturday morning. As it catches up to the degrading front, the features will merge in the Central Bering and continue to press the weakening ridge downstream toward Southwest Alaska. Expect a return to wet and windy weather over Unalaska to Pribilofs by Saturday evening. Saturday will be relatively quiet for Southwest Alaska, but by Sunday afternoon, this new Bering system will reach the Southwest coast where rain, snow, and south to southeasterly flow returns. As moisture spreads inland, expect areas of interior Southwest to receive more snow than rain, given the cooler temperatures built up. Through Monday, areas such as Sleetmute and Crooked Creek may get 1 to 4 inches of snow. Confidence on this is still low-to-moderate (30% to 50%) given the dependency on local temperatures, so stay tuned. Out west, a lobe of tropical energy will be swinging up into the Western Aleutians, bringing up the chance for isolated thunderstorms over Shemya and Attu as well as the surrounding marine areas. This energy is expected to shift northward into the Western Bering and dissipate through Sunday night into Monday morning. -CL/KM && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)... The seasonably active weather pattern in the Gulf continues through the long term period, with a fairly inactive pattern poised for the Bering. By Tuesday morning, a decaying surface low along the northern Gulf coastline will continue to bring gusty easterly winds and rain to the area. For the Alaska Peninsula, Bristol Bay, and inland Southcentral locations, expect unsettled and showery weather to continue through early next week as weak shortwaves rotate through the upper level flow. Additionally, gusty northerly winds enhanced by cold air advection on the back side of the low will be possible across the eastern Aleutian Islands and AK Peninsula, especially through favored gaps and passes. By mid to late next week, a more impactful storm is expected to build in the southern Gulf/northern Pacific, entering our area south of the Alaska Peninsula. Widespread rainfall and strengthening winds are expected to spread across the Gulf of Alaska including Kodiak Island. In the Bering by Wednesday afternoon, there is quite a large spread in model solutions, with the GFS suggesting a 995 mb gale-force low over the Central Aleutians, and the Canadian and EC solutions suggesting a 1024 mb ridge blocking all active weather in the area at that time. By Thursday, this contended low may shift into the Gulf, bringing another round of winds and rain to Southcentral, while other solutions are spreading the high pressure ridge at that time. Both solutions suggest a new frontal system entering the westernmost Bering/Aleutians by Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor this system and the progression of guidance. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this evening. Cooling temperatures and clearing skies overnight could allow for formation of low stratus late tonight into Saturday morning, possibly bringing ceilings into MVFR range or lower. Confidence in the development of low stratus is still relatively low, and low cloud formation will depend on the degree of clearing of upper level cloud cover tonight into early Saturday. && $$