FNAK71 PAFC 191555
FWSAER

Spot Forecast for JBER IPBC Rx Fire...USWFS
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
755 AM AKDT Tue May 19 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 AKDT on May 19. 
.DISCUSSION...

Rain showers will pass over Anchorage this morning. Otherwise,
expect drier conditions this afternoon. Winds will be the real
challenge for the burn site today as strong and gusty winds through
channeled terrain will make a chaotic wind situation. For this
morning, the strong winds through the Chugach Mountains will shear
off and produce an eddy effect over the burn area creating southwest
to northwest winds that will generally remain under 10 mph sustained, 
but have some gusts up to 20 mph. After the front passes around noon, 
there is a good chance for the winds shift the southeast and increase
to around 12 mph gusting 20 to 25 mph. This is not a sure thing, but
looks like the most likely scenario at this time. 

Winds should diminish and turn northerly overnight and not be nearly
as strong Wednesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain likely early in 
                    the morning, then isolated rain showers in the 
                    afternoon. 
CWR.................11 percent. 
Chance of pcpn......60 percent. 
Tstm Coverage.......None. 
Max temperature.....Around 45. 
Min humidity........57 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest to northwest winds 6 to 8 mph with
					gusts to 20 mph in the morning. Winds increasing
					to southeast 12 gusting up to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southeast around 20 mph. 
Ventilation Rate....Poor (1082-4393 m^2/s). 
Pcpn amount.........0.04 inches. 
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches. 

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming 
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain 
                    overnight. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
Chance of pcpn......30 percent. 
Tstm Coverage.......None. 
Min temperature.....Around 39. 
Max humidity........90 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast 12 gusting up to 22 mph in the evening
					then diminishing to north around 5 mph by midnight. 
Mixing height.......Dropping to 400 ft AGL after midnight. 
Transport winds.....Southeast 25 mph in the evening becoming north around 6 mph. 
Ventilation Rate....Poor (203-4393 m^2/s). 
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches. 
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches. 

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain. 
CWR.................12 percent. 
Chance of pcpn......40 percent. 
Tstm Coverage.......None. 
Max temperature.....Around 45. 
Min humidity........55 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 mph shifting to the 
                    west around 5 mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....North around 6 mph. 
Ventilation Rate....Poor (580-1176 m^2/s). 
Pcpn amount.........0.04 inches. 
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches. 

$$
Forecaster...Zingone
Requested by...Bryan Quimby
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613851.1/AER
.DELDT 05/19/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bryan_quimby@fws.gov,rawlin_myers@fws.gov