WTPS11 NFFN 170000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A06 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Oct 170139 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI 01F CENTRE 993HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 163.6W
AT 170000 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 6 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. 
 
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC.
WATI LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
SOUTH AND LIES OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
WATI IS BEING STEERED SOUTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A CURVED-BAND PATTERN WITH 0.7/0.75 WRAP ON
LOG 10 SPIRAL WHICH YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 3.5 AND PT IS 3.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE WATI TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF
COOK ISLANDS, WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 13.5S 163.3W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 14.9S 162.9W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 16.4S 161.6W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 18.1S 159.2W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON WATI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
170800UTC.