WTPS11 NFFN 161200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A04 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
OCT 161358 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 163.5W
AT 161200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS.  DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. 



CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTRE AND IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANISED. TD01F LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS GOOD
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH AND LIES OVER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A CURVED-BAND PATTERN WITH A 0.5 WRAP YIELDS
A DT OF 2.5. THE MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YEILDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE IDENTIFIED THE SYSTEM AND GENERALLY MOVE IT
TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
EXPECTED.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD01F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 12.7S 162.8W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 14.1S 162.4W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 15.6S 161.8W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 17.4S 160.4W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 162000UTC.