WTPS11 NFFN 160600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A04 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
OCT 160730 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 163.4W
AT 160600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI/GOES IR IMAGERY. 
DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. 



DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTRE AND IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANISED WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND.
TD01F LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
SOUTH AND LIES OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH A 0.45 WRAP
YIELDS DT = 2.5.  MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YEILDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD01F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 12.0S 163.1W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 13.2S 162.7W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 14.6S 162.3W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 16.2S 161.4W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 161400UTC.