WTPS11 NFFN 152100
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A01 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Oct 152132 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 163.4W
AT 151800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI/GOES IR AND VIS
IMAGERY.  CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS. 



CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER AND IS GRADUALLY
SHOWING IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANISATION. TD01F LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW
SHEARED WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM HAS GOOD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH AND LIES IN AN AREA WITH SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH A 0.3 WRAP YIELDS A
DT=2.0, PAT AND MET AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE IDENTIFIED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT IN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 11.1S 163.7W MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 12.0S 163.3W MOV SSE AT05 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 13.0S 162.8W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 14.1S 162.2W MOVSSE AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 160200UTC.