WTPS11 NFFN 170600 CCA
PART 1 OF 2
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A07 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
OCT 170745 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI 01F CENTRE 989HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 163.0W
AT 170600 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8
KNOTS. 
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS.  
 
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP
ONTO LLCC. WATI LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LIES OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 28
DEGREES CELSIUS.
WATI IS BEING STEERED SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A CURVED-BAND PATTERN WITH 0.7/0.75 WRAP ON
LOG 10 SPIRAL WHICH YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET IS 3.5 AND PT IS 3.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT, YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE WATI TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
OVER PARTS OF COOK ISLANDS, WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 14.4S 162.6W MOV  AT  KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE