FNUS28 KWNS 182119
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern will to transition to
quasi-zonal flow on Day 3/Wednesday. Simultaneously, a weak
shortwave trough will drift southward over the Intermountain West
and across the northern U.S. through late this week. A combination
of below normal temperatures and fairly widespread precipitation
will overspread much of the central and eastern portions of the
CONUS as synoptic flow stabilizes into the weekend. This could
briefly dampen the fire weather threat across much of the country
and support additional green up in some locations, particularly
across the northern CONUS, that have thus far been struggling to
grow fire-slowing vegetation. However, much longer duration
precipitation and cool conditions would be needed to appreciably
improve heavy dead fuel moisture and resultant ERCs.  

On Day 3/Wednesday, lingering moderate southwesterly flow aloft will
encourage breezy conditions amid a dry airmass across
central-western NM and eastern AZ. 40% Critical probabilities remain
where southwest winds sustained at 10-20 mph will align with minimum
RH of 10-20% atop dry fuels. On Day 4/Thursday, persisting low RH
across the Southwest with much lighter winds will preclude the
introduction of probabilities. Beyond Day 5/Friday, guidance begins
to vary in the timing/extent of embedded shortwaves and associated
chances of precipitation. Nonetheless, the overall upper pattern
suggests dampened fire weather conditions on a broader scale through
the forecast period, in the exception of localized terrain-driven
breezy conditions across parts of the West.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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