ACUS11 KWNS 232149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232149 
NDZ000-SDZ000-232315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southwestern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 232149Z - 232315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of supercells and organized clusters capable of
producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase over the
next few hours. A watch will be issued shortly.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are evolving along a lee trough in far
southwestern ND -- potentially being aided by a passing midlevel
wave farther north (evident in WV imagery). An elongated hodograph
with clockwise curvature (around 30-40 kt of effective shear) and
steep midlevel lapse rates atop lower/middle 60s dewpoints will
support organized clusters and supercell structures capable of
producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Deep-layer
shear oriented perpendicular to the lee trough will initially favor
discrete cells, though localized upscale growth into small clusters
is possible with time. A watch will be issued shortly.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   46170398 47120400 47640394 47870360 47950260 47670210
            46610204 46040230 45910282 45970382 46170398 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN