ACUS11 KWNS 232004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232004 WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-232200- Mesoscale Discussion 2101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Nevada into northern Utah...southeast Idaho...and southwest Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 232004Z - 232200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected in the coming hours across northeast Nevada and northern Utah and adjacent portions of Wyoming and Idaho. These storms will likely pose a threat for large hail and severe winds. Watch issuance is expected as convection begins to mature. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows steady vertical development of cumulus and early thunderstorm initiation across UT into northeast NV and southeast ID. Much of this early activity is tied to enhanced orographic ascent within higher terrain features, though thermodynamic conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for thunderstorm development across much of the region as temperatures warm into the upper 80s within a plume of upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints. Based on recent mesoanalysis estimates and modifications to the 18z LKN sounding, MLCAPE values are increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range with rapidly decreasing inhibition. 30-40 knot west/southwesterly flow sampled by the recent LKN sounding will advect convection developing in northeast NV/western UT across the plume of relatively higher buoyancy, and should also support adequate hodograph elongation for organized convection. Initially discrete/semi-discrete cells may pose an early threat of marginally severe hail given somewhat elongated/straight hodographs, but weak low-level flow and a propensity for splitting cells should promote upscale growth with an increasing wind threat through late afternoon and early evening. Based on these observations and trends in latest guidance, confidence in the overall severe threat appears greatest across north-central UT and adjacent portions of ID and WY where buoyancy is regionally maximized, low-level lapse rates are very steep (9 C/km), and convective coverage should be highest through peak heating. Some solutions, notably recent runs of the HRRR, hint that one or more somewhat better organized clusters may emerge across this region and could result in more focused corridors of higher wind potential. However, this will be conditional on realizing adequate cold pool amalgamation and upscale growth, and may be thermodynamically limited to areas in/around the Great Salt Lake where low-level moisture is locally higher. Regardless, watch issuance is likely in the next hour or two for portions of the region as storms begins to develop and mature. ..Moore/Smith.. 08/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...VEF...LKN... LAT...LON 40931009 40671013 40251084 39261253 38861375 38631468 38671530 38881607 39101656 39571655 40121610 41891422 43181250 43241202 43191174 42821117 42291051 41721014 41301002 40931009 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH