ACUS11 KWNS 221919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221918 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-222115- Mesoscale Discussion 2085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...Southern Texas Panhandle into far southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221918Z - 222115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated across far southwest Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle/northwest Texas by late afternoon. This activity will pose a threat for severe downburst winds as it spreads southwest through early evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations are reporting temperatures reaching into the 106-110 F range within the apex of a thermal ridge across northwest TX. These temperatures are running 4-5 F warmer than expected based on the latest high-res guidance, which implies that boundary-layer mixing is likely deeper than depicted by forecast soundings. Similarly, residual mixed-layer inhibition is likely weaker than recent RAP mesoanalyses would suggest. The early stages of boundary-layer cumulus development are becoming evident in GOES imagery, suggesting that thunderstorm development appears probable in the coming hours either along a residual outflow boundary draped across southwest OK, along a diffuse/weak frontal zone extending into the TX Panhandle, or in proximity to a weak thermal low analyzed near the intersection of these two boundaries. Although recent guidance does not appear to be capturing low-level thermodynamic conditions well, HRRR/RRFS time-lagged guidance shows a trends towards widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development by the 20-22 UTC period. Deep-layer shear will remain weak and promote mainly disorganized convection, but the potential for severe downbursts should increase as thunderstorms spread south/southwest into the thermal ridge where low-level profiles will be most optimal for near-surface downdraft accelerations. Explicit wind gusts estimates from high-res solutions depict small swaths of 60-75 mph winds, which appear reasonable given the expectation of poorly organized convection within a very hot/deeply mixed environment. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is possible if convective coverage appears sufficient for a more widespread severe wind threat. ..Moore/Smith.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 33469894 33419928 33610233 33640275 33720299 33900312 34150316 34500308 34810289 35060253 35130166 35160062 35269914 35149890 34869876 33819857 33609867 33469894 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN