ACUS11 KWNS 191744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191744 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-191915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...Northern Indiana/Ohio into Southeastern Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 191744Z - 191915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
anticipated this afternoon across portions of northern Indiana/Ohio
into southeastern Michigan. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Current expectations are that thunderstorm coverage
will continue to increase this afternoon in an environment
characterized by steep low-level lapse rates, strong buoyancy, and
modest deep-layer shear. This should support storm organization into
linear segments capable of damaging wind gusts and hail, with the
highest threat for damaging winds anticipated where any bowing line
segments may develop.

..Halbert/Hart.. 05/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42378214 41688256 41408292 41228343 41038396 40668481
            40808525 41058539 41408547 41708537 41828525 42358455
            42818403 43218355 43448327 43578301 43698280 43758257
            43618234 43268212 42908207 42378214 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN