ACUS11 KWNS 181932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181931 
KSZ000-OKZ000-182130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0775
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma into Southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 181931Z - 182130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will
be possible this afternoon. The degree of tornado/very-large hail
threat will depend on a discrete storm mode. A watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus are increasing in the vicinity of
Dodge City as convergence along a cold front has increased over the
past couple of hours. With 40+ kt of effective shear and observed
7.9 C/km mid-level lapse rate on the 18Z DDC sounding, initial
supercells capable of very-large hail and severe winds can be
expected. Tornadoes will also be possible where discrete modes can
be maintained longer given the low-level shear. However, the linear
forcing from the cold front may be enough to encourage a quick
transition to a more linear mode. Regardless of the exact evolution,
all severe hazards will be possible. A watch will likely be needed
this afternoon.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36499920 36489977 36590009 36800021 37240015 37729977
            37999955 38189903 38149863 37889833 37319824 36819839
            36499920 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN