FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels. Region 4513 (N04E46,
Eac/beta-gamma) produced multiple C-flares this period, the largest of
which was a C4.0 at 21/2059 UTC. New Region 4516 (N16W24, Cro/beta) was
numbered, while the remaining regions were largely unchanged from the
previous period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-flare
(R3/Strong or greater) over 22-24 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux increased to a peak of 6 pfu, but remained below
S1 (Minor) levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
22-24 Aug. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels on 22 Aug, and a slight chance for S1 levels on
23-24 Aug.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning CH HSS influences and the
return of ambient conditions. Total magnetic field strength average
around 5 nT, and the Bz component was predominately neutral and
northward. Solar wind speeds decreased from a peak of 500 km/s to around
425 km/s.

.Forecast...
Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 22-24 Aug.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. 

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels
over 22-24 Aug.