FXXX12 KWNP 170031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Oct 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4551 (S14W19,
Eki/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M1.3/1n flare (R1-Minor) at
16/1542 UTC, the strongest of the period. This region along with Region
4557 (N07E16, Dsi/beta) produced most of the C-class X-ray activity
observed in the past 24 hours. These two regions exhibited minor growth
and development among their spots. No significant changes were observed
in Region 4555 (S08W70, Cro/beta).

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 19 Oct, with a
slight chance (20%) for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) due
mainly to the flare potential of Region 4551.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
17-18 Oct. No S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected through 19
Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated under diminishing HSS
activity. Total field (Bt) maintained near 5 nT, with a variable Bz
(north-south) component that reached as far south as -5 nT. Solar wind
speeds were steady around 450 km/s. Phi was in a mostly negative sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to trend towards nominal levels as
influences from a negative polarity CH HSS slowly wanes, with a return
to near-background/ambient levels by 18 Oct.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
Active conditions early on 17 Oct are likely to decrease to mostly quiet
as influences from the negative polarity CH HSS wanes. Quiet geomagnetic
conditions are likely over 18-19 Oct.