FXXX10 KWNP 221231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 22-Aug 24 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 22-Aug 24 2026

             Aug 22       Aug 23       Aug 24
00-03UT       1.33         3.00         1.67     
03-06UT       0.67         2.00         1.33     
06-09UT       0.67         2.00         1.33     
09-12UT       1.33         2.00         1.33     
12-15UT       1.67         2.00         1.33     
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         1.33     
18-21UT       2.00         2.00         1.67     
21-00UT       1.67         2.33         1.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 22-Aug 24 2026

              Aug 22  Aug 23  Aug 24
S1 or greater   40%     20%     10%

Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels on 22 Aug, and a slight chance on 23-24 Aug.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 22-Aug 24 2026

              Aug 22        Aug 23        Aug 24
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 22-24 Aug, and a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event.