FXXX10 KWNP 160031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 16-Oct 18 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 16-Oct 18 2026

             Oct 16       Oct 17       Oct 18
00-03UT       2.33         1.67         1.67         
03-06UT       2.67         1.67         1.67         
06-09UT       2.00         1.33         1.33         
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         1.33         
12-15UT       1.67         1.33         1.33         
15-18UT       2.00         1.33         1.33         
18-21UT       2.00         1.33         1.33         
21-00UT       2.67         1.67         1.67         

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 16-Oct 18 2026

              Oct 16  Oct 17  Oct 18
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storm through 18 Oct due to the flare potential of Region 4551.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 16-Oct 18 2026

              Oct 16        Oct 17        Oct 18
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 18
Oct, with a chance (25%) for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and
a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) due mainly to the flare
potential of Region 4551.