AWUS01 KWNH 200552
FFGMPD
TXZ000-201150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0196
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
151 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Areas affected...south-central TX to middle TX coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200550Z - 201150Z

SUMMARY...Over the next 3-6 hours, localized flash flooding will
be possible over south-central TX to the middle TX coast due to
high rainfall rates locally exceeding 2 to 3 in/hr at times and
isolated storm total rainfall over 5 inches possible.

DISCUSSION...0515Z radar imagery showed a roughly west-east
oriented line of thunderstorms stretching from Kinney County to
Brazoria County. These storms were located along a composite
outflow boundary, sinking south, with an inflection point over
Colorado County due to prior merging of two outflow boundaries. An
northern bookend vortex/MCV feature, currently over Burleson
County, has been associated with some of the highest rainfall
rates with this complex. It is with this feature where
MRMS-derived rates had been 2 to 3+ inches per hour for a few
hours and local Wunderground sites near I-35 reported closer to 4
inches in an hour between 00-02Z.

High rain rates tied to the east-southeastward tracking MCV
feature over Burleson County are expected to wane over time as it
becomes further displaced from the better instability to the
south. Going forward, the outflow boundary is forecast to continue
dropping south with time into moderately strong MLCAPE of
2000-4000 J/kg and PWs of 1.8 to 2.1 inches via 05Z SPC
mesoanalysis data. While the outflow's exact motion remains
uncertain, given the convective line's orientation is not a
straight line, links/bends and short-term training will be
possible as it advances generally southward. 850-300 mb and 0-6 km
mean layer winds are less than or equal to 15 kt which will be
supportive of slow cell motions at times just behind or perhaps
just ahead of the outflow should pre-"frontal" cells form within
the highly unstable environment. Localized flash flooding may
result, including over a stripe of higher soil moisture due to 2
to 4+ inches of rain which fell early Tuesday morning from Aransas
to Corpus Christi Bay and westward.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   30409616 30379581 29519542 29159485 28759501 
            28239599 27799670 27359740 27339875 27679991 
            28730064 28990033 29019972 29039796 29519692 
            30009652 30259646