AWUS01 KWNH 190502
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-191000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0188
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...northeastern OK into southeastern KS,
southwestern/central MO and northwestern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190457Z - 191000Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible through 10Z from northeastern OK into
southeastern KS, southwestern to central MO, and perhaps far
northwestern AR. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected, but
values may locally exceed 2 inches.

Discussion...04Z surface observations showed a cold front
extending from northeastern KS into northwestern OK and the
northern TX Panhandle, preceded by a line of thunderstorms which
arced from central MO into southeastern KS. An outflow boundary
was located at the leading edge of the thunderstorms with a faster
southeast motion over MO as compared to KS, allowing convective
line orientation to match that of the mean steering flow from the
WSW, supporting training and hourly rain of 1 to 2+ inches. 04Z
SPC mesoanalysis data showed 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in central MO,
increasing to as much as 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in north-central OK,
west of I-35, out ahead of the outflow boundary.

A strong southerly low level jet was observed over central OK (65
kt at 850 mb VAD wind plots from KTLX and KINX), veering and
weakening slightly into MO. This orientation will favor the best
angle (closest to orthogonal) into the southward sagging boundary
over OK where continued convective development is likely as the
front/outflow move south over the next few hours. The convective
line orientation will support WNW to ENE training at times with 1
to 2+ in/hr rainfall and possible flash flooding from an
additional 2 to 4+ inches through 09Z. Flash flood potential will
be increased should training overlap with urban locations or
lowered flash flood guidance due to heavy rain over the past 24
hours.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38989302 38819179 37939125 37089184 36359389 
            35899567 35629673 35779761 36699814 37629629