AWUS01 KWNH 152104 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-160300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1500 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 503 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas affected...southwestern to northern TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 152102Z - 160300Z Summary...A few areas of flash flooding are expected across southwestern to northern TX over the next 3-6 hours. Thunderstorm coverage is likely to expand through 00Z with areas of training supporting hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches. Discussion...Radar imagery from 2030Z showed a cluster of thunderstorms bisecting I-20 in the vicinity of Abilene, slowly tracking toward the east near a frontal wave. Additional slow moving thunderstorms were noted about 20 to 60 miles east and northeast of Abilene, located along an outflow boundary that draped eastward from the frontal wave near Abilene, across northwestern TX before curving northeastward into southeastern OK. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall with these thunderstorms has generally peaked in the 1 to 2 inch range over the past couple of hours. 20Z SPC mesoanalysis showed a corridor of ~1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE that extended near and south of the outflow boundary over northern TX to the Rio Grande near Del Rio, out ahead of a cold front over western and southwestern TX. The region of TX between the Rio Grande and lower Pecos Valley to the Red River between Vernon and Denison remained located within an anomalous stream of moisture containing PW values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches via recent GPS observations. Visible satellite imagery revealed a number of smaller scale circulations embedded within this moisture axis over northern Mexico, advancing northward, with one near the Rio Grande just south of Val Verde County. Short term forecasts show the cold front continuing to advance southeastward through this evening, catching up with and overtaking the outflow boundary in place over northern TX through 03Z. As peak heating combines with increasing low level convergence in association with the approaching cold front and subtle embedded mid-level impulses, numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop through the evening hours from the Rio Grande, northward. Between 00-03Z an axis of thunderstorms is expected to be in place from the Rio Grande to northern TX, but waning instability across northern locations will favor higher rainfall rate potential across southern locations after 00Z. Within axes of SW to NE training, hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be likely, but peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ may also occur. These higher rainfall rates are likely to result in at least a few areas of flash flooding into the early overnight hours. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 34029915 33979864 33799804 33749748 33889666 33879649 33709646 33289658 32529735 31339860 30309943 29580037 29320101 29410117 29510144 29620167 29660221 30110227 31170194 32510048 33429997 33899946