FXUS02 KWBC 170732 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 19 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 23 2026 ...A nor'easter could bring prolonged impacts to coastal communities along the East Coast... ...Overview... A developing nor'easter is expected to bring wind, rain and coastal flooding impacts to the East Coast next week. A cutoff low will bring excessive rainfall concerns to the Four Corners mid-to-late next week. A downstream ridge will amplify and promote above average temperatures across the Central U.S.. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... There's a consistent signal for closed mid-level lows to develop along the East and West Coasts, while a ridge amplifies over the Central U.S.. Models continue to teeter back and forth with the positioning of the East Coast low, with the latest model runs suggesting a day 3 location slightly farther away from the Mid- Atlantic Coast. Clustering analysis indicates that the timing of the Western U.S. trough/cut-off low is the main area of uncertainty across the CONUS during the medium range period. The Euro and Euro AIFS are favored in the blend throughout the medium range given their decent run- to-run consistency and good clustering later in the period. deterministic GFS incorporates well with the Euro consensus through day 5. The ensemble means are favored on days 6 and 7 to help mitigate spread in solutions regarding the East Coast trough and Western U.S. trough. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A nor'easter is expected to bring strong winds, potentially heavy rain and coastal flooding to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coasts this week. The mid-latitude cyclone responsible for these hazards is forecast to intensify well off the Carolina Coast tonight before drifting back toward the mainland on Monday. Persistent onshore flow should generate strong winds with gusts exceeding 40 kts possible along the immediate coastline. Beach erosion is also likely from the aforementioned strong onshore flow. Please refer to WPC's Key Messages on our website for more information: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. An upper ridge, aided by an amplifying upstream pattern and approaching embedded shortwave energy, will support broad southerly flow and above average temperatures across the central U.S. next week. The embedded shortwave doesn't carry a threat of producing any precipitation. A shortwave passing south of the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to dig/amplify into a cut-off low over the eastern Pacific just off the West Coast midweek. The depth and speed of this system will determine how much moisture it can pull into the region. The latest trends suggest an increasing likelihood for anomalous moisture to be pulled into the West. This moisture will then interact with a strong cold front and produce scattered to isolated thunderstorms over portions of the Four Corners. Heavy rainfall may occur as well with some Extreme Forecast Index shift of tail signals showing up across the Southwest by next Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday. Some high elevation snowfall can't be ruled out for parts of the Intermountain West and Sierra Nevada mid-week. Another shortwave diving south through British Columbia will send a cold front into the Northwest mid-to-late next week. This system could generate high elevation snow for portions of the Northern Rockies/Intermountain West late next week. Kebede Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices andKey Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$