FXUS65 KVEF 240721
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1221 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the week.

* Best chance of storms along and south of I-15 today, with 
  diminishing odds afterwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A slight cooldown is anticipated today and Tuesday thanks to a 
subtle uptick in moisture and fall in 500mb heights. Highs during 
this time are forecast to be 1-5 degrees cooler than yesterday 
(largest cooldown across the southeastern half of the CWA), but 
still above normal for late August. From Wednesday through 
Friday, ensemble guidance suggests an uptick in 500mb heights and 
southwesterly flow, the latter yielding a gradual reduction of 
moisture. The net effect of these changes is warming at the 
surface, with highs returning to values 3-8 degrees above normal. 
Combined with oppressive overnight lows, major to extreme heatrisk
resumes across most of the Mojave Desert. Over the weekend (and 
into early next week), ensembles depict a broader trough 
approaching the western US, leading to cooler temperatures and 
increased breezes.

Overnight radar and satellite imagery shows a complex of storms in 
southern AZ pushing our way. Convection should wane before it 
reaches our area, but the southerly outflow will advect in 
additional moisture through the early morning hours. Latest HREF 
shows the 1" PWAT contour extending up to the I-15 corridor this 
afternoon, which should allow isolated to scattered storms in this
area. Main concerns will be gusty outflow winds and dry 
lightning, but cannot rule out isolated instances of flash 
flooding. Moisture should then gradually decrease throughout the 
week, leading to more isolated and weaker activity. 

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light 
southwesterly winds are expected overnight with speeds remaining 
below 10 knots. For tomorrow, winds will favor a southeasterly 
direction under 10 knots in the late morning, shifting to the 
southwest in the afternoon with gusts over 20 knots possible. Gusty 
outflow winds from area thunderstorms are possible during the 
afternoon, particularly from the southeast. Any shower development 
will end prior to sunset. Temperatures exceed 100 degrees until 04Z 
this evening, then increase to above 100 degrees by 18Z tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Breezy west winds will 
continue early this evening near KDAG with otherwise light winds 
elsewhere. A push of southeast winds may arrive early in the morning 
between 10-12z near KEED and KIFP, with some gusts to near 20 knots 
and patchy blowing dust. Isolated thunderstorms will be develop 
during the afternoon, primarily south and east of Interstate 15. 
Confidence is low in storms reaching any particular terminal - but 
gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Outler

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