FXUS65 KVEF 231757
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1057 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above normal temperatures continue through next week.

* Isolated storm chances linger into early next week, with best 
  chances in northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Saturday.

With a fairly persistent pattern expected, temperatures remain
above normal through the forecast period. Ensemble guidance 
keeps the 500mb ridge anchored in southern NM and southeastern AZ,
leaving us under south-southwest flow aloft. A subtle cooldown is
expected Monday-Tuesday as moisture increases in our southeastern
areas, but excessive heat quickly returns by mid-week and sticks 
around. Elevated low temperatures will offer little-to-no 
overnight relief, especially in the Mojave Desert. Major to 
extreme heatrisk is forecast to return to these areas during the 
second half of the week.

The aforementioned south-southwest flow is just southerly enough
to let moisture linger but southwesterly enough to keep it 
limited. These conditions should favor isolated afternoon 
convection, primarily in northwestern AZ and the southern Great 
Basin where odds are 10-30%. Main concerns with this activity are 
gusty outflow winds and dry lightning, though brief heavy 
downpours are possible. An influx of moisture on Monday may result
in an uptick in coverage along/southeast of I-15, but models 
still disagree on the northwestward extent and magnitude of this 
influx. During the second half of the week, the flow acquires a 
greater westerly component, allowing moisture and precipitation 
chances to subside.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds 
favor a southeasterly direction this morning with sustained speeds 
of less than 10 knots. A few gusts to around 15 knots cannot be 
ruled out. In the early afternoon, winds will shift to the southwest 
with gusts of around 20 knots. Winds will decrease but maintain a 
southwesterly direction after sunset. Temperatures exceed 100 
degrees until 04Z this evening, then increase to above 100 degrees 
by 18Z tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Southerly winds with 
gusts between 20 and 25 knots develop this afternoon in the Las 
Vegas Valley, Colorado River Valley, and Owens Valley, weakening 
after sunset. Gusty westerly winds pick up after sunset at KDAG, 
lasting into the early morning hours. Thunderstorms will continue to 
drift through Mohave County this afternoon, and additional storm 
development cannot be ruled out over high terrain in southern Nevada 
as well. Gusty outflow winds may cause sudden wind direction changes 
in the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Meltzer

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