FXUS65 KVEF 231135 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 435 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through next week. * Isolated storm chances linger into early next week, with best chances in northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin. && .DISCUSSION...Through Saturday. With a fairly persistent pattern expected, temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period. Ensemble guidance keeps the 500mb ridge anchored in southern NM and southeastern AZ, leaving us under south-southwest flow aloft. A subtle cooldown is expected Monday-Tuesday as moisture increases in our southeastern areas, but excessive heat quickly returns by mid-week and sticks around. Elevated low temperatures will offer little-to-no overnight relief, especially in the Mojave Desert. Major to extreme heatrisk is forecast to return to these areas during the second half of the week. The aforementioned south-southwest flow is just southerly enough to let moisture linger but southwesterly enough to keep it limited. These conditions should favor isolated afternoon convection, primarily in northwestern AZ and the southern Great Basin where odds are 10-30%. Main concerns with this activity are gusty outflow winds and dry lightning, though brief heavy downpours are possible. An influx of moisture on Monday may result in an uptick in coverage along/southeast of I-15, but models still disagree on the northwestward extent and magnitude of this influx. During the second half of the week, the flow acquires a greater westerly component, allowing moisture and precipitation chances to subside. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds will become variable early this morning, with a brief southeasterly shift mid- to late morning as winds increase to 8-10KT. Through early afternoon, winds veer to the southwest, increasing to 10-15KT with gusts to 20-25KT expected through sunset. Gusts diminish thereafter, with winds remaining southerly to southwesterly through the end of the period. VFR conditions will continue with no operationally significant cloud cover expected. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees from 18Z-03Z, reaching a high of 109 degrees this afternoon. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Somewhat variable winds around 5-10KT this morning will veer to the south-southwest by early afternoon and become gusty, with gusts t0 20-25KT common. Gusts will diminish after sunset, with winds becoming lighter and settling out of typical patterns overnight. An exception to this will be the western Mojave Desert/KDAG, where winds will become light and variable late morning, with gusty southwesterly winds to 25-30KT returning late afternoon into tonight. Additionally, the northern Owens Valley/KBIH will follow typical daily patterns, with gusty up-valley winds developing this afternoon before veering to the north through the evening. Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin and northwestern Arizona, with gusty outflow winds and lightning strikes the main concerns. Confidence in direct impacts at area terminals is low at this time. VFR conditions prevail with FEW-SCT clouds at or above 10kft. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter