FXUS65 KVEF 151107 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 407 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty north-northwesterly winds expected this afternoon through Friday with gusts 40 to 50 mph across portions of the region. * Precipitation chances return to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...Through Thursday. Satellite imagery early this morning showed a broad upper level trough draped across the Rockies. Meanwhile to the northwest, a shortwave was digging south on the backside of this main trough. These two pieces of energy are expected to interact to bring gusty north to northeast winds to the region today through Friday. No significant changes to previous forecast thinking. Widespread gusts over 40 MPH are likely over Death Valley, southeast California, and western Arizona as a 60-70KT jet sets up across the region. Continuing to see indications of downslope wind enhancement in valleys next to terrain, including areas like Pahrump and around the Hualapai Mountains. Impacts to valley roadways, including Interstate 40 east of the Hualapai Mountains in southern Mohave County and Highway 160 in Pahrump, due to strong crosswinds are possible. No changes were made to the Wind Advisories as they capture the highest chances for wind impacts as well as the strongest wind timing. Winds will diminish through the day Friday as the trough pulls away, and while wind impacts should end by midday as gusts drop below 40 MPH- continued breezy northeast to east winds gusting 25-35 MPH are expected through the afternoon. This downward trend will continue Friday night and Saturday, with light winds returning to the forecast Sunday onward. After a brief warm up to near normal today and Friday, temperatures drop a few degrees back to slightly below normal levels for the weekend. After dry conditions through at least the weekend, will need to watch how a deep West Coast trough interacts with moisture that may advect into the region from Hurricane Simon. At the moment, moisture does not look to be as high as what we saw with the remnants of Rachel, but what impacts we will see is uncertain as the GFS and ECMWF have very different ideas on IVT plume locations and how they interact with the incoming trough. No major changes to the precipitation forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread 30%- 40% chances that then linger into Thursday, and snow level around 9000ft. Confidence in these details remain low though as this system is far into the forecast period, will continue to monitor as things develop. With the incoming system and the potential for rain, temperatures will cool and remain below normal early next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package... Northerly breezes ramp up throughout the morning, gradually turning more north-northeast by the afternoon. Brief periods of wind direction from 040-060 are possible, if not likely, but on average wind direction in the afternoon and evening should be more 010-030. Gusts of 20-30 knots are likely (70% or more) from 15z through 03z. Afterwards, wind magnitude becomes more uncertain with ~50% chance of 20+ knot gusts overnight. VFR conditions under clear skies. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Gusty north-northeast winds expected across most of the area today, with the exception being our far northwestern locations. Gusts peak in the late morning and afternoon with 20-35 knots likely (70% or more). Winds are expected to remain elevated overnight, but just how elevated is uncertain. If the low levels can stay mixed out, gusts of 20-35 knots will be possible through the night. VFR conditions prevail with clear skies throughout the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nickerson AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter