FXUS63 KUNR 170449
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1049 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures return for the weekend.

- Warm and dry weather expected through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

No major forecast changes needed with this evening's update.
Massaged NBM-led wind gusts down in our forecast grids overnight 
to better match observational trends, as they were too high. 
Otherwise...high temperatures in the 70s are still ON for 
tomorrow (Saturday) under mostly sunny skies and dry conditions!
Enjoy the generally pleasant and low-impact weekend ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Mild and dry afternoon on tap as upper level ridge builds in the 
western US. Drier weather and warming temps expected through the 
weekend as the ridge continues to build. With humidities dropping 
into the upper teens to 20s tomorrow, elevated fire wx conditions 
may develop over portions of northeastern WY and southwestern SD 
where breezy southwest winds will develop in the afternoon.

Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly late in the weekend. 
Closed upper low makes its way onshore over southern CA by Sunday.
This system transforms to an open wave as treks northeastward 
across the desert Southwest and the Rockies. It should pass to our
south early in the week with the main impacts being breezy 
southeasterly winds across portions of our area Monday and 
Tuesday. Temperatures next week will continue to be seasonably 
mild with highs in the 60s to 70s across much of the area.

Next chances for precip arrive later next week as another trof 
deepens across the western US, though it's still too far out to 
determine any specifics about precip chances or timing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1049 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conditions expected.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KSmith
DISCUSSION...Wong
AVIATION...Schweigert