FXUS65 KTWC 192023
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
123 PM MST Tue May 19 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A dry weather system to our north will bring 
southwesterly breezes through Wednesday with slightly less 
wind thereafter into the weekend. Temperatures will be slightly 
below to near normal for the rest of the week with Minor 
HeatRisk. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon across 
southeast Arizona with some thin high level cirroform clouds moving 
in from the southwest. Latest WV satellite imagery shows a broad 
trough axis extending from the northern Rockies into southeast CA 
with southwest flow aloft over AZ. This setup is resulting in some 
breezes this afternoon, especially to the south and east of Tucson 
where elevated fire weather conditions continue. This pattern will 
remain persistent through Wednesday with continued breezes, and high 
level cloudiness across the region. 

For Thursday through Saturday, a weak upper low is progged to 
develop off the northern Baja coast and then gradually slide 
eastward into Sonora. This system won't have much of an impact for 
us, but afternoon breezes will tick down during this time. There is 
potential for a bit of mid level moisture creeping north into 
locales south and east of Tucson for a few build-ups Saturday. The 
likelihood is higher for a more notable mid level moisture push by 
around next Monday as another upper low approaches the southern 
California coast and bring in moisture from the south and southwest. 
Still plenty of time to see how this evolves over the upcoming days 
but for now we're depicting a 10 to 30 percent chance of showers and 
thunderstorms Monday for much of SE Arizona, then trending towards 
eastern areas Tuesday.

Temperatures through Saturday will be near to slightly below normal 
through the forecast period. 

&&

.AVIATION...valid through 21/00Z. SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20K 
feet AGL and another FEW-SCT layer at or around 15K feet AGL through 
the forecast period. SFC winds SWLY at 12-20 kts with gusts 25-30 
kts through 20/03Z, with the strongest winds south and east of KTUS, 
especially at KDUG terminal. SFC winds diminish and become SELY/SLY 
to less than 10 kts between 20/04Z and 20/16Z, before becoming SWLY 
again 10-18 kts with gusts as high as 30 kts aft 20/16Z through end 
of valid period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and breezy conditions through Wednesday
resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for areas east and 
south of Tucson with brief near critical conditions existing in the 
southeastern portion of Cochise County. For Thursday through Sunday, 
winds will be generally be less than 15 mph with min 
relative humidities sitting in the teens to the mid-20s. Mid to 
upper level moisture will approach as early as this weekend south 
and east of Tucson, but the more impactful moisture will likely hold 
off until early next week as another weather system approaches. 
THere is a 10 to 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms 
Monday for much of southeast Arizona, and these chances will trend 
towards the NM border Tuesday, 


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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