FXUS64 KTSA 240445 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Temperatures mostly above normal with continued periods of locally high heat stress to continue through the week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Limited risk of severe weather Sunday night into early Monday with damaging wind potential the primary hazard. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist until widespread beneficial rainfall occurs. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The immediate near term concern is the likelihood of at least scattered shower and thunderstorm development after midnight, beginning initially across parts of northeast Oklahoma and eventually working south and eastward toward daybreak, all in response to an increasing low level jet. There have already been signs of the initial development late this evening on KINX, along with other echoes across northwest Arkansas that have bubbled much of the evening. The expectation is for the potential for severe weather, focused on a locally damaging wind threat, to be highest in far northeast Oklahoma into northwest and west central Arkansas. Locally heavy rain should be expected as well. The overall trend into the daylight hours should be for an eastward shift through mid to late morning, a notable lull early afternoon, with a low chance of additional development in southeast Oklahoma mid to late afternoon in association with another mid level speed max. In addition to the shower and thunderstorm potential through the day, a portion of the area will continue to battle heat stress concerns. A Heat Advisory will be issued for a part of east central and southeast Oklahoma roughly along and south of I-40 and along and west of the Indian Nations Turnpike. This area is less likely to have significant rainfall and convective debris during the day and therefore, continued triple digit temperatures. It is possible that if lesser thunderstorm development materializes tonight and into the morning that this advisory will need to be expanded northeastward on later shifts. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday evening, with a gradual decrease in the potential for further development for much of the night, continuing into the day Tuesday. Overall, warmer conditions areawide are expected Tuesday, with additional heat headlines likely. The brief largely dry period for much of Monday night and into Tuesday looks to end Tuesday night as a fairly potent mid level disturbance moves into the area, leading to the development of a thunderstorm complex that moves southward into parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Cooler low level temperatures look to move southward into the area on the heels of this disturbance for Wednesday, with roughly the northern half of the area seeing temperatures closer to normal. The more normal temperatures should hang around into Thursday as well. A change in the overall upper level pattern is expected by the weekend, with the high pressure center shifting eastward. This should bring a longer stretch of dry weather and a return to hot temperatures areawide, particularly by Sunday and next Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered to overcast high clouds are forecast to remain common through the period, along with few to broken mid clouds developing late tonight and Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return overnight tonight through early Monday afternoon with a shortwave dropping through the region. Greater potential looks to be early to late morning Monday and will continue Prob30 groups for timing for northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Otherwise, will carry VCSH just outside of the Prob30 groups. Gusty to locally strong winds, brief heavy rains, and brief MVFR conditions could develop within the convection Monday morning. Winds through the period continue to be easterly tonight and then transition between east and south Monday. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are forecast through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 95 75 98 / 50 20 0 0 FSM 76 93 75 102 / 50 40 10 10 MLC 79 102 76 105 / 20 20 20 0 BVO 70 94 69 97 / 60 20 0 0 FYV 72 88 70 98 / 60 60 10 0 BYV 68 88 71 94 / 70 70 10 0 MKO 75 95 73 101 / 50 30 10 0 MIO 69 93 71 96 / 80 50 0 0 F10 76 100 74 102 / 30 20 10 0 HHW 77 103 77 103 / 10 20 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-065- 066-071-073. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...20