FXUS64 KTSA 161625 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1125 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1125 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Gusty north winds continue Friday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the higher terrain areas of NW AR and far SE OK. - Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast across far SE OK this afternoon due to the combination of low humidity, gusty winds and lack of rainfall in this area. - Temperatures drop enough both Friday and Saturday nights to support frost development across portions of NE OK and NW AR. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Breezy and much cooler conditions are ongoing in the wake of last night/s cold frontal passage. A few northerly wind gusts around 40 mph have been observed late this morning in far southeast Oklahoma, with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range across much of the rest of eastern Oklahoma. The very dry low levels will combine with the strong and gusty winds to lead to elevated fire weather concerns in far southeast Oklahoma where very little, if any, rainfall occurred in the last few days. A Fire Danger Statement was issued by an earlier shift through early evening and remains valid. Gust magnitude remains expected to decrease, albeit slowly, through the afternoon and the existing Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire on time at 1 pm. Wraparound cloudiness is increasing late this morning, particularly in areas north of I-40, as the main upper level trough swings through the region. This cloudiness should stick around through the afternoon and possibly into part of the evening and overnight in parts of northwest Arkansas. The main issue tonight is the potential for areas of frost, especially in locations north and west of I-44 in northeast Oklahoma. Wind speeds drop substantially overnight with the approach of surface high pressure, allowing temperatures to drop into the mid 30s. Highest confidence in frost development is in parts of Osage, Pawnee and Washington counties, and a Frost Advisory will be issued for these areas for Saturday morning. Potential for more patchy frost will extend farther east along the Kansas border, but confidence is not high enough in the areal extent to issue an advisory that far east. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A low impact forecast will exist for much of the extended forecast. Saturday is shaping up to be absolutely fantastic for those who favor light winds, seasonably cool temperatures, low humidity and plenty of sun. Despite continued low afternoon humidities, the lighter winds will lead to improved fire weather conditions for southeast Oklahoma, and an additional Fire Danger Statement appears unnecessary. Additional frost development should occur Saturday night into Sunday morning across northern parts of the forecast area, with overnight lows being close to those expected tonight. Another Frost Advisory may be warranted. Southerly winds make a return to the area on Sunday, which will lead to warmer afternoon temperatures. Upper level ridging builds into the Central United States by early next week and persists through much of the upcoming week. This will keep warmer temperatures across the region, with near to above normal highs returning as early as Monday and certainly by Tuesday. The next chance of rain looks to accompany another strong storm system that makes its way eastward toward the area late in the week and into the next weekend. Low rain chances will return ahead of this feature possibly as early as Thursday-Friday, but with a trend toward a more delayed arrival, more likely over the next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT FriOct 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, although ceilings around 4k feet will be common at most sites from late morning until around sunset. North winds will gust near 30 knots at times today before gradually diminishing this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 59 39 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 65 44 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 62 42 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 58 35 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 59 37 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 58 41 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 60 40 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 57 38 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 F10 60 40 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 64 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ049-053-376. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ055-059-154- 254-354. AR...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ011-119-120. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...05