FXUS64 KTSA 160440 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Gusty north winds will occur behind a cold front tonight into Friday. An advisory is in effect for the higher terrain areas of NW AR and far SE OK. - Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast across far SE OK this afternoon due to the combination of low humidity, gusty winds and lack of rainfall in this area. - Temperatures get cool enough Friday and Saturday nights to support potential frost conditions across portions of NE OK and NW AR. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A cold front has now cleared the forecast area. A tight gradient behind the front will support gusty north winds tonight into Friday. The latest short-term guidance indicates advisory-level gusts are possible, especially on the ridge tops in the higher terrain areas of NW AR and far SE OK. A wind advisory has been issued from 09Z tonight to 18Z Friday for gusts reaching 45 and perhaps topping 50 mph locally. The Oklahoma Mesonet rainfall map shows that far southeast Oklahoma has picked up very little if any rain with this recent event. By afternoon, this area will see humidities dropping into the 30 to 40 percent range while north winds remain gusty. With fuels remaining fairly dry and favorable, a Fire Danger Statement will be issued for this area. A much cooler day is in store for Friday, with afternoon high temps in the 50s to mid 60s well below average for this time of year. Lingering low cloud cover, gusty north winds and maybe some patchy drizzle will lead to a pretty raw day over the Ozarks. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Lingering low clouds over the Ozarks Friday night are expected to hold low temps up around 40 degrees and will prevent frost conditions from developing. However, to the west of the expected low cloud shield across far NE OK near the KS border, low temps in the mid 30s are expected to support frost development. A frost advisory will be needed with the next forecast update if this trend continues. Clouds are not expected to be a factor by Saturday night, and with the surface ridge either close by or overhead, conditions may be favorable in more areas for frost development. A warming trend will commence over the weekend with ridging aloft and at the surface maintaining quiet weather. This warming trend will continue sharply upward as we head into next week, with 80 degree highs returning Wednesday. An upper trough is expected to become established over the western CONUS with downstream ridging over the Plains. Dry weather is expected to persist until the upper trough starts its trek toward the Plains. The latest ensemble data suggests this may not happen until the end of next week. Lacy && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front is making its way southward through the area, bringing a period of MVFR ceilings and a dramatic increase in wind speeds and gusts from the north to northwest following its passage. The front has passed through BVO/TUL/RVS and should reach MLC by 01Z, XNA/ROG/FYV by 02Z and FSM by 04Z. Light rain is occurring with the frontal passage, with minor visibility reductions expected for a few hours. Ceilings should improve overnight at each site as the front pulls away. However, wraparound moisture should lead to additional lower cloud development for the NE OK and NW AR terminals, most likely at VFR heights but some potential for another round of MVFR ceilings. Winds will begin to decrease some at the NE OK sites 21-22Z, although remaingusty through the end of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 47 59 39 60 / 30 0 0 0 FSM 53 65 43 67 / 60 0 0 0 MLC 50 62 43 64 / 80 0 0 0 BVO 42 58 35 60 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 44 59 39 63 / 70 0 0 0 BYV 46 58 41 62 / 70 0 0 0 MKO 48 60 39 62 / 50 0 0 0 MIO 45 57 39 60 / 40 0 0 0 F10 48 60 39 61 / 60 0 0 0 HHW 54 64 44 66 / 40 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053-376. AR...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for ARZ011-119-120. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...22