FXUS64 KTSA 151133 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 633 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 629 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday afternoon for much of northeast Oklahoma. - Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Thursday evening with periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, especially this evening and overnight. - A few strong to severe storms will be possible tonight with the most likely area near and along I-40. - A cold front will bring much cooler and pleasant weather by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will move from their current position along I-35 just to the west of the forecast area, across eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas from late this evening into the pre-dawn hours on Thursday. The bowed portion of the line remains severe, with a northeasterly movement that should take it into portions of east central and eventually far northeast Oklahoma, roughly along the northern edge of the DCAPE axis. This should support a continued risk for locally damaging winds as far east as the Arkansas border. Radar estimates around an inch of rainfall in an hour, which should continue as it moves across the forecast area and support a continued threat for localized flooding. The Flood Watch has been expanded another tier of counties southward, largely due to a combination of the expectations of where the current activity will go and also a strip of locally higher totals from the rains earlier today. Storm development should continue into the daylight hours Thursday due to the low level jet, with some decrease in coverage and intensity late morning into early afternoon as it wanes. Additional storms are expected to develop as the cold front begins to move through the area during the afternoon, with a gradual southward shift with time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Cold frontal storms will be ongoing across areas south of I-44 early Thursday evening, with the storm axis continuing to push southward with the front. Dry conditions will likely arrive areawide by daybreak Friday. Much drier dew points and colder temperatures will follow the front, along with a substantial increase in northerly winds. Peak gusts Thursday night and into Friday will likely be in the 30 to 40 mph range. This does not appear to be a slam dunk Wind Advisory case but would not be surprised to see a couple of observations with gusts above 40 mph. Parts of far southeast Oklahoma that do not receive much rainfall from the current event may see a brief uptick in the potential for fire weather concerns on Friday given the gusty winds and much lower dew points that will be in place. Surface high pressure will move into the area Friday night and into Saturday, in part, leading to the lowest overnight temperatures of the season so far for both Friday night and Saturday night. Locations near the Kansas border will flirt with freezing temperatures both mornings with both winds and humidities supporting possible frost. Keep an eye on this potential in the next couple of days if you have sensitive vegetation outdoors. South winds make a return Sunday, signaling the start of a warmup that is expected to continue into at least the early to middle part of next week. Temperatures climb to near normal Monday afternoon and above Tuesday afternoon. The dry conditions that begin Friday will extend through at least Wednesday, with low chances arriving late next week to western parts of the area due to another system approaching from the west. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms ongoing across NE OK will continue to lift northeastward through the morning with flight levels likely to be widely varying across the region. A lull in precip coverage is possible from late morning into mid afternoon before additional showers and scattered storms develop ahead of the approaching cold front. The front will sweep across the local area from late afternoon through late evening with winds becoming gusty. Post frontal ceilings are expected to become VFR conditions overnight with lower clouds likely spreading back across parts of the region beyond this forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 48 59 41 / 100 20 0 0 FSM 86 53 64 44 / 60 80 0 0 MLC 80 51 62 43 / 90 80 0 0 BVO 75 43 58 34 / 90 0 0 0 FYV 80 44 59 37 / 80 80 0 0 BYV 81 46 58 41 / 70 70 0 0 MKO 78 49 60 40 / 90 60 0 0 MIO 76 45 57 38 / 90 20 0 0 F10 77 48 60 40 / 90 50 0 0 HHW 88 55 64 44 / 30 40 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ055>067-154-254- 354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...07