FXUS64 KTSA 150424 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1124 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1124 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday afternoon for much of northeast Oklahoma. - Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Thursday evening with periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, especially this evening and overnight. - A few strong to severe storms will be possible tonight with the most likely area near and along I-40. - A cold front will bring much cooler and pleasant weather by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will move from their current position along I-35 just to the west of the forecast area, across eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas from late this evening into the pre-dawn hours on Thursday. The bowed portion of the line remains severe, with a northeasterly movement that should take it into portions of east central and eventually far northeast Oklahoma, roughly along the northern edge of the DCAPE axis. This should support a continued risk for locally damaging winds as far east as the Arkansas border. Radar estimates around an inch of rainfall in an hour, which should continue as it moves across the forecast area and support a continued threat for localized flooding. The Flood Watch has been expanded another tier of counties southward, largely due to a combination of the expectations of where the current activity will go and also a strip of locally higher totals from the rains earlier today. Storm development should continue into the daylight hours Thursday due to the low level jet, with some decrease in coverage and intensity late morning into early afternoon as it wanes. Additional storms are expected to develop as the cold front begins to move through the area during the afternoon, with a gradual southward shift with time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Cold frontal storms will be ongoing across areas south of I-44 early Thursday evening, with the storm axis continuing to push southward with the front. Dry conditions will likely arrive areawide by daybreak Friday. Much drier dew points and colder temperatures will follow the front, along with a substantial increase in northerly winds. Peak gusts Thursday night and into Friday will likely be in the 30 to 40 mph range. This does not appear to be a slam dunk Wind Advisory case but would not be surprised to see a couple of observations with gusts above 40 mph. Parts of far southeast Oklahoma that do not receive much rainfall from the current event may see a brief uptick in the potential for fire weather concerns on Friday given the gusty winds and much lower dew points that will be in place. Surface high pressure will move into the area Friday night and into Saturday, in part, leading to the lowest overnight temperatures of the season so far for both Friday night and Saturday night. Locations near the Kansas border will flirt with freezing temperatures both mornings with both winds and humidities supporting possible frost. Keep an eye on this potential in the next couple of days if you have sensitive vegetation outdoors. South winds make a return Sunday, signalling the start of a warmup that is expected to continue into at least the early to middle part of next week. Temperatures climb to near normal Monday afternoon and above Tuesday afternoon. The dry conditions that begin Friday will extend through at least Wednesday, with low chances arriving late next week to western parts of the area due to another system approaching from the west. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 There is a lull in the action currently, but the next round of showers and storms is taking shape across southwest OK. This area of showers and storms will spread northeast tonight. Storms that move into northeast Oklahoma may have gusty winds with them, so this was added to the TEMPO groups. Expect conditions to drop to MVFR or IFR as the storms blow through, generally near and for a few hours after 06Z. Uncertainty with storm impacts across SE OK and NW AR yields less confidence at those sites so PROB30s were used instead. Expect another break aft 15Z and until the front approaches in the afternoon. Included wind shift at the NE OK sites with a few showers possible. Farther to the south and east, included PROB30s for showers or storms ahead of the front at the tail end of the forecast. MVFR cigs may prevail for a time Thursday morning at many sites before returning to VFR Thursday afternoon. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 67 77 48 59 / 90 80 20 0 FSM 71 86 53 64 / 30 50 80 0 MLC 68 80 51 62 / 60 80 80 0 BVO 61 75 43 58 / 100 80 0 0 FYV 65 80 44 59 / 50 70 80 0 BYV 68 81 46 58 / 50 70 70 0 MKO 67 78 49 60 / 80 80 60 0 MIO 65 76 45 57 / 90 70 20 0 F10 67 77 48 60 / 90 80 50 0 HHW 68 88 55 64 / 20 10 40 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OKZ055>067-154-254- 354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...30