FXUS63 KTOP 200547
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1247 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool temperatures through Thursday then much warmer late this 
  weekend into early next week.  

- Precipitation chances return Wednesday night and continue into 
  early Friday though no severe weather expected.

- Mainly dry conditions likely for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Cloud cover slowly diminishing with cool north winds keeping early 
afternoon temps in the 50s. Clearing trend continues into tonight 
though northeast winds stay up somewhat and should keep any frost 
potential in check; NBM 10th percentile has mid 30s for lows in 
northern portions of Republic and Washington Counties. 

Dry air remains in place Wednesday but little advection should keep 
highs in the 60s. South to southeast flow returns around 850 mb 
Wednesday night inducing weak though consistent isentropic upglide 
into at least Thursday night for high rain chances at all locations 
over this period. Better coverage and intensity may come Thursday 
night as a southern branch upper wave moves through. Instability 
remains meager with MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg though PW around 1.25 
inches could support some decent rain. Rain and cloud keeps 
Thursday's highs cool again and 60s could be aggressive in a wetter 
scenario. Should see a break in precip Friday for warmer 
temperatures.

Upper troughing remains just upstream into early Saturday which 
supports modest precip chances Friday night but features to support 
precipitation beyond this are uncertain at best with large spreads 
in solutions by Monday evening. A general southerly low-level flow 
supports temperatures back above normal by Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR for the period with mid clouds increasing into the end of the
period ahead of the next weather system. ENE winds increase to 
around or just above 10kts later this morning into the afternoon as 
the surface ridge shifts gradually east. Should remain dry this
period with any precipitation likely holding until sometime the next
period. There could be an hour or so of shallow ground fog mainly at
KTOP but this appears to be too low probability to mention.  

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Drake