FXUS63 KTOP 192348
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
648 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool temperatures through Thursday then much warmer late this 
  weekend into early next week.  

- Precipitation chances return Wednesday night and continue into 
  early Friday though no severe weather expected.

- Mainly dry conditions likely for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Cloud cover slowly diminishing with cool north winds keeping early 
afternoon temps in the 50s. Clearing trend continues into tonight 
though northeast winds stay up somewhat and should keep any frost 
potential in check; NBM 10th percentile has mid 30s for lows in 
northern portions of Republic and Washington Counties. 

Dry air remains in place Wednesday but little advection should keep 
highs in the 60s. South to southeast flow returns around 850 mb 
Wednesday night inducing weak though consistent isentropic upglide 
into at least Thursday night for high rain chances at all locations 
over this period. Better coverage and intensity may come Thursday 
night as a southern branch upper wave moves through. Instability 
remains meager with MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg though PW around 1.25 
inches could support some decent rain. Rain and cloud keeps 
Thursday's highs cool again and 60s could be aggressive in a wetter 
scenario. Should see a break in precip Friday for warmer 
temperatures.

Upper troughing remains just upstream into early Saturday which 
supports modest precip chances Friday night but features to support 
precipitation beyond this are uncertain at best with large spreads 
in solutions by Monday evening. A general southerly low-level flow 
supports temperatures back above normal by Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

TOP/FOE cigs have been hovering near 3kft and this looks to stay that
way for a few hours with the edge of MVFR stratus slow to move east.
Have utilized a tempo group for the first few hours of the period
before clouds eventually clear later tonight at all TAF sites. Can't
entirely rule out the possibility of shallow ground fog around
sunrise with skies clearing and light winds, but confidence is not
high enough to mention with this issuance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Picha