FXUS63 KTOP 191738
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1238 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cooler airmass keeps highs in the 60s through Thursday as
  modified Canadian air settles across the area.

- Next precipitation chance arrives late Wednesday night into
  Thursday as a western trough lifts through, but severe weather is
  not expected given limited instability and quality moisture 
  return.

- Temperatures warm through the holiday weekend with highs returning to
  the 70s and 80s by Saturday into Memorial Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A cold front pushed through the area overnight, leaving anafrontal 
showers across eastern portions of the CWA early this morning. 
Modified Canadian high pressure builds in through the day, bringing 
drier conditions and a reinforced cool airmass with highs only 
reaching the mid to upper 60s today through Thursday.

The next forecast challenge arrives late Wednesday night into 
Thursday as a mid-level trough emerges from the Rockies and lifts 
northeast across the region. Moisture return remains limited ahead 
of this system, with surface dewpoints struggling to recover into 
the lower 50s. Instability is expected to be minimal as a result, 
keeping severe weather probability low with low QPF amounts expected.

A warming trend takes hold heading into the holiday weekend as the 
pattern becomes more amplified and southerly flow returns. Highs 
climb into the upper 70s by Saturday with lower 80s possible by 
Memorial Day. Increasing moisture return may bring additional 
precipitation chances late in the extended period, though confidence 
remains limited with spread widening amongst the ENS, GEFS and GEPS 
solutions at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

MVFR cloud is slowly dissipating and expect VFR conditions at all
sites by 21Z but some uncertainty in exact timing and heights
remains with current heights around FL020. Winds should back off and
veer slightly as high pressure builds into the region. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Poage