FNUS75 KTFX 221159 FWSTFX Spot Forecast for Smith Gulch...HIDC National Weather Service Great Falls MT 559 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0630 MDT on August 22. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Scattered light showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will move through this morning. Localized gusty winds up to 25 mph and an isolated lightning strike will be the primary hazards with this activity. A more impactful area of showers and thunderstorms will move northeastward in the afternoon and evening. Strong, gusty winds, brief heavy downpours, and some instances of hail will be possible with these later day storms. Otherwise, southwest to westerly winds will be on the increase tonight into Sunday in advance of the approaching Pacific trough. The warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions will create elevated fire weather concerns on Sunday. There will also be some scattered thunderstorms, though most of this activity will be east of the incident site. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of dry thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. CWR.................5 percent. Chance of thunder...29 percent. Max temperature.....85-90. Min humidity........22-27 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming south around 5 to 10 mph becoming easterly. Gusty and erratic winds expected near any showers or thunderstorms. Ridgetop...........Southwest 15 to 20 mph decreasing and becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 15 mph. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........87 100 84 81 86 86 50 62 53 62 52 45 Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Chc of thdr (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 20 Temp............66 64 66 67 72 73 76 81 84 85 86 84 RH..............48 48 49 49 44 45 40 35 30 27 27 31 20 FT wind dir..NW W W S NE E E SE E E SE SE 20 FT wind spd..0 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 20 FT wind gust.5 5 5 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 Ridge wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W NW Ridge wind spd..15 15 20 20 20 15 15 15 15 15 10 5 Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.5 5.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SE S SW SW SW W SW W Transp wind spd.5 5 10 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. CWR.................20 percent decreasing to 0 percent overnight. Chance of thunder...50 percent. Min temperature.....58-63. Max humidity........65-70 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Southwest winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near any showers or . Ridgetop...........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting south southwest 15 to 25 mph late in the evening. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph. TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........75 71 86 91 96 79 71 43 65 42 47 44 Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chc of thdr (%).50 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............83 81 78 73 71 69 68 66 66 64 62 62 RH..............34 38 43 52 57 57 60 61 62 66 67 69 20 FT wind dir..SW SW W SW W SW SW W SW W SW SW 20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT wind gust.15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 Ridge wind dir..NW NW W W SW S S S SW SW SW SW Ridge wind spd..5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15 20 25 25 25 Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Transp wind dir.W SW SW W W SW SW W SW W W W Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 .SUNDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the afternoon. CWR.................5 percent. Chance of thunder...21 percent. Max temperature.....81-86. Min humidity........20-25 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Southwest winds around 5 to 15 mph increasing to west 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near any showers or thunderstorms. Ridgetop...........Southwest 20 to 25 mph increasing to 30 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......10000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph increasing to west 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........69 69 69 35 35 35 40 40 40 16 16 16 Weather cov..... SCH SCH Weather type.... RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 20 10 0 0 Temp............61 60 63 66 72 74 78 79 81 81 81 82 RH..............68 70 65 58 51 46 40 37 34 32 28 26 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 15 15 15 20 20 20 20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 15 15 15 30 30 30 30 30 30 Ridge wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W Ridge wind spd..20 20 20 20 20 25 25 30 30 35 35 30 Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.5 6.0 7.5 9.0 9.5 10 9.5 Transp wind dir.W W W SW SW W SW SW W W W W Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 10 15 15 20 20 25 20 20 $$ Forecaster...Greely Requested by...RCH Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2620054.3/TFX .DELDT 08/22/26 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL mthdc@firenet.gov,matthew.gingery@usda.gov,seth.bond@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov