FNUS75 KTFX 221145 FWSTFX Spot Forecast for Rugby...HIDC National Weather Service Great Falls MT 545 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on August 22. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Scattered light showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will move through this morning. Localized gusty winds up to 25 mph and an isolated lightning strike will be the primary hazards with this activity. A more impactful area of showers and thunderstorms will move northeastward in the afternoon and evening. Strong, gusty winds, brief heavy downpours, and some instances of hail will be possible with these later day storms. Otherwise, southwest to westerly winds will be on the increase tonight into Sunday in advance of the approaching Pacific trough. The warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions will create elevated fire weather concerns on Sunday. There will also be some scattered thunderstorms. .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the morning. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. CWR.................5 percent. Chance of thunder...32 percent. Max temperature.....77-82. Min humidity........26-31 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Southerly wind 5 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near any showers or thunderstorms. Ridgetop...........Southwest 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph late in the morning. Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest late in the afternoon. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........76 92 85 80 95 88 82 70 70 54 43 55 Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC SCH CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Chc of thdr (%).0 0 10 20 20 20 30 20 10 0 0 0 Temp............62 60 61 64 69 70 72 76 77 78 79 77 RH..............48 52 53 54 46 45 42 39 34 31 31 34 20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE S S S S S S S S SW 20 FT wind spd..5 10 5 5 5 5 5 10 5 5 5 5 20 FT wind gust.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Ridge wind dir..S S SW SW SW S S S S SW SW SW Ridge wind spd..15 20 20 20 15 10 10 10 10 15 10 10 Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.5 4.5 6.0 6.0 5.0 Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. CWR.................5 percent. Chance of thunder...36 percent. Min temperature.....55-60. Max humidity........66-71 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Southerly 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near any showers or thunderstorms. Ridgetop...........Southwest 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph overnight. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after 3 am. TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........50 76 58 59 90 84 71 57 75 71 74 48 Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chc of thdr (%).20 30 30 40 30 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............77 76 71 68 66 65 64 63 62 61 59 59 RH..............38 43 52 57 59 62 64 64 66 67 65 67 20 FT wind dir..SW S SW S S S S S S S SE SE 20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT wind gust.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 Ridge wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW S S SW SW SW SW W Ridge wind spd..10 10 15 15 15 15 15 20 25 25 25 25 Mix hgt (kft)...4.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Transp wind dir.SW S SW S S S S S S S S S Transp wind spd.10 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 10 10 .SUNDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) then becoming partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. CWR.................0 percent increasing to 15 percent in the afternoon. Chance of thunder...35 percent. Max temperature.....75-80. Min humidity........24-29 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......South winds around 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southwest with gusts to around 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near any showers or thunderstorms. Ridgetop...........Southwest 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL increasing to 10500 ft AGL in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph late in the afternoon. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........84 84 84 40 40 40 65 65 65 63 63 63 Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC SCH Weather type.... RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC SCH CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 40 40 20 0 Temp............59 57 59 63 68 71 73 74 75 75 75 76 RH..............67 70 70 69 54 46 39 36 33 32 30 32 20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S SW SW SW W W W 20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 FT wind gust.15 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 25 25 25 Ridge wind dir..W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W Ridge wind spd..25 25 25 25 25 20 20 15 15 15 20 20 Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.5 11 11 7.5 10 9.5 Transp wind dir.S S S S SW SW SW SW W SW SW W Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 20 20 15 $$ Forecaster...Greely Requested by...RCH Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2620058.3/TFX .DELDT 08/22/26 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Ryan.Kooiker@usda.gov,mthdc@firenet.gov,xavier.delatorre@usda.gov,claybus2481@gmail.com, tfx.ops@noaa.gov