FXUS62 KTBW 232347
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
747 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Hot and humid conditions will continue.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf
  during the late night and early morning hours will move onshore
  each morning and then shift inland during the afternoon hours
  through Tuesday.

- Light southerly flow sets up during midweek with a more typical
  summertime pattern of scattered to numerous mainly afternoon 
  and evening thunderstorms each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 744 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

It has been more active this afternoon than yesterday with scattered 
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over west central Florida. 
Gusty winds around 35-45 mph were produced in some of the stronger 
storms that moved into the Tampa Bay region from the eastern Gulf 
waters. Some beneficial rainfall was also observed with some areas 
along the west coast near Tampa Bay receiving over 2 inches of 
rainfall. Current radar is showing things quieting down and the 
latest HRRR guidance is showing mostly rain-free conditions 
overnight across west central and southwest Florida. No changes 
needed to current forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions and onshore west-southwest winds less than 10 knots 
will prevail through the period. Shower and storm chances possible 
mid to late morning along the coast, moving inland through the day. 
Will cover this with VCTS starting after 16Z for TPA/PIE/SRQ and 
after 17Z for LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 744 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

West to southwest winds will remain over the waters for the next 
couple of days then shift to southerly during midweek and eventually 
southeast next weekend. No headlines are expected as winds should 
remain 15 knots, except gusty and erratic near scattered showers and 
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  91  79  91 /  10  30  10  20 
FMY  77  95  78  95 /  20  20  10  20 
GIF  74  95  75  95 /  10  30  10  30 
SRQ  78  92  78  92 /  20  20  10  20 
BKV  73  93  73  92 /  10  30  10  40 
SPG  79  90  79  90 /  10  20  10  20 

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: 
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn 
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt