FXUS62 KTBW 222340 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 740 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions continue. - Onshore flow will lead to scattered showers and storms over the Gulf Sunday morning that move inland during the afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 It has been a relatively quiet afternoon and evening across west central and southwest Florida with scattered showers and isolated storms. The highest observed winds were 41 mph at Winter Haven this afternoon, otherwise highest winds were around 20-25 mph in storms. The radar continues to show some showers and storms along the Nature Coast, eastern Gulf waters and eastern Polk, but latest HRRR guidance has things quieting down over the next few hours with mostly rain-free conditions expected overnight. With continued west- southwest flow, some showers and storms will be possible over the eastern Gulf waters early morning, moving along the coast by mid- morning and then farther inland during the afternoon. Forecast looks good for now with no changes needed at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR conditions and onshore west-southwest winds less than 10 knots will prevail through the period. Shower and storm chances increase along the coast by mid-morning, moving inland through the day. Will cover this with VCTS starting after 14Z for TPA/PIE/SRQ and after 17Z for LAL. Rain and storm chances remain low for PGD/FMY/RSW, so will keep them rain-free for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 West to southwest winds will remain over the waters for the next couple of days, with no headlines expected. Scattered showers and storms are forecast each day, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 90 78 92 / 20 50 10 20 FMY 79 94 78 95 / 0 20 10 30 GIF 75 95 74 96 / 10 30 10 20 SRQ 78 91 77 92 / 10 30 10 20 BKV 74 91 73 94 / 20 60 10 30 SPG 80 89 79 91 / 20 40 10 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt