FGUS51 KTAR 161519 RVFBUF RIVER FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...NORTON, MA 1119 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 : :THIS IS A NWS GUIDANCE PRODUCT FROM THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER. :OFFICIAL FORECASTS/WARNINGS ARE ONLY ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS OFFICES. : :************************************************************ :Tonawanda Creek - Attica, NY :Flood stage 8.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 3.4 FT at Oct-16 1100 AM .ER ATTN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 3.5 / 3.5 / 3.5 .E2 :1017: / 3.5 / 3.4 / 3.4 / 3.4 .E3 :1018: / 3.3 / 3.3 / 3.3 / 3.3 .E4 :1019: / 3.3 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.40/ 0.09/ 0.04/ 0.02/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Tonawanda Creek - Batavia, NY :Flood stage 9.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 1.6 FT at Oct-16 1100 AM .ER BTVN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 1.8 / 1.9 / 1.9 .E2 :1017: / 1.8 / 1.8 / 1.7 / 1.6 .E3 :1018: / 1.6 / 1.6 / 1.6 / 1.5 .E4 :1019: / 1.5 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.30/ 0.08/ 0.03/ 0.02/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Tonawanda Creek - Rapids, NY :Flood stage 12.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 1.3 FT at Oct-16 1100 AM .ER RAPN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 1.4 / 1.6 / 1.7 .E2 :1017: / 1.8 / 1.9 / 1.9 / 1.9 .E3 :1018: / 1.9 / 1.8 / 1.7 / 1.6 .E4 :1019: / 1.6 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.26/ 0.04/ 0.01/ 0.01/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Cattaraugus Creek - Gowanda, NY :Flood stage 10.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 1.4 FT at Oct-16 1015 AM .ER GOWN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 1.5 / 2.3 / 2.9 .E2 :1017: / 2.8 / 2.4 / 2.1 / 2.0 .E3 :1018: / 1.9 / 1.7 / 1.5 / 1.5 .E4 :1019: / 1.5 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.46/ 0.11/ 0.05/ 0.02/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Buffalo Creek - Gardenville, NY :Flood stage 7.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 0.9 FT at Oct-16 1015 AM .ER GDVN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 1.0 / 1.0 / 0.8 .E2 :1017: / 0.7 / 0.7 / 0.6 / 0.6 .E3 :1018: / 0.6 / 0.6 / 0.6 / 0.6 .E4 :1019: / 0.6 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.38/ 0.08/ 0.03/ 0.01/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Cayuga Creek - Lancaster, NY :Flood stage 8.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 3.0 FT at Oct-16 1030 AM .ER LCSN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 3.4 / 3.6 / 3.4 .E2 :1017: / 3.2 / 3.0 / 2.9 / 2.8 .E3 :1018: / 2.8 / 2.7 / 2.7 / 2.7 .E4 :1019: / 2.7 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.28/ 0.08/ 0.02/ 0.01/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Cazenovia Creek - Ebenezer, NY :Flood stage 10.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 3.2 FT at Oct-16 1100 AM .ER EBZN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 3.2 / 3.5 / 2.8 .E2 :1017: / 2.7 / 2.6 / 2.5 / 2.5 .E3 :1018: / 2.5 / 2.4 / 2.4 / 2.4 .E4 :1019: / 2.4 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.41/ 0.08/ 0.03/ 0.02/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Ellicott Creek - Williamsville, NY :Flood stage 8.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 2.2 FT at Oct-16 1015 AM .ER WILN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 2.2 / 2.3 / 2.3 .E2 :1017: / 2.3 / 2.3 / 2.3 / 2.3 .E3 :1018: / 2.2 / 2.1 / 2.1 / 2.0 .E4 :1019: / 1.9 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.23/ 0.05/ 0.01/ 0.01/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Genesee River - Wellsville, NY :Flood stage 11.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 4.4 FT at Oct-16 1045 AM .ER WLLN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 4.4 / 4.6 / 4.7 .E2 :1017: / 4.6 / 4.5 / 4.5 / 4.4 .E3 :1018: / 4.4 / 4.4 / 4.4 / 4.4 .E4 :1019: / 4.4 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.27/ 0.06/ 0.03/ 0.01/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Genesee River - Portageville, NY :Flood stage 19.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 9.1 FT at Oct-16 1100 AM .ER PRTN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 9.2 / 9.4 / 9.5 .E2 :1017: / 9.5 / 9.5 / 9.4 / 9.3 .E3 :1018: / 9.2 / 9.2 / 9.1 / 9.1 .E4 :1019: / 9.1 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.33/ 0.05/ 0.04/ 0.02/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :RIVER STAGE IS AFFECTED BY RESERVOIR REGULATION :************************************************************ :Genesee River - Mount Morris Dam, NY :Flood stage 760.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 589.5 FT at Oct-16 1100 AM .ER MMDN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HPIFF/DIH6 :POOL FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 589.4 / 589.4 / 589.4 .E2 :1017: / 589.4 / 589.6 / 590.3 / 590.7 .E3 :1018: / 591.1 / 591.3 / 591.6 / 591.8 .E4 :1019: / 591.8 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.32/ 0.05/ 0.03/ 0.02/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Genesee River - Avon, NY :Flood stage 33.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 15.9 FT at Oct-16 1015 AM .ER AVON6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 15.8 / 15.9 / 15.9 .E2 :1017: / 15.9 / 16.1 / 16.3 / 16.4 .E3 :1018: / 16.4 / 16.3 / 16.3 / 16.1 .E4 :1019: / 15.9 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.25/ 0.04/ 0.02/ 0.01/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :RIVER STAGE IS AFFECTED BY RESERVOIR REGULATION :************************************************************ :Oatka Creek - Garbutt, NY :Flood stage 6.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 2.4 FT at Oct-16 1100 AM .ER GRBN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 2.5 / 2.6 / 2.7 .E2 :1017: / 2.6 / 2.6 / 2.5 / 2.5 .E3 :1018: / 2.5 / 2.5 / 2.5 / 2.5 .E4 :1019: / 2.5 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.26/ 0.06/ 0.02/ 0.01/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Black Creek - Churchville, NY :Flood stage 6.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 1.7 FT at Oct-16 1100 AM .ER CHRN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 1.8 / 2.1 / 2.4 .E2 :1017: / 2.6 / 2.7 / 2.7 / 2.6 .E3 :1018: / 2.4 / 2.2 / 2.1 / 2.0 .E4 :1019: / 1.9 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.29/ 0.04/ 0.01/ 0.01/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Genesee River - Rochester, NY :Flood stage 15.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 4.4 FT at Oct-16 0800 AM .ER RHRN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 4.4 / 4.5 / 4.6 .E2 :1017: / 4.7 / 4.7 / 4.8 / 4.8 .E3 :1018: / 4.8 / 4.7 / 4.7 / 4.6 .E4 :1019: / 4.5 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.27/ 0.02/ 0.01/ 0.01/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :RIVER STAGE IS AFFECTED BY DIVERSION :************************************************************ :Honeoye Creek - Honeoye Falls, NY :Flood stage 6.5 ft :Latest Observed Value - 2.2 FT at Oct-16 1030 AM .ER HNYN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 2.1 / 2.3 / 2.4 .E2 :1017: / 2.4 / 2.3 / 2.3 / 2.2 .E3 :1018: / 2.2 / 2.1 / 2.1 / 2.1 .E4 :1019: / 2.1 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.31/ 0.05/ 0.02/ 0.03/ 0.01/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :RIVER STAGE IS AFFECTED BY DIVERSION :************************************************************ :Canandaigua Lake - Canandaigua, NY :Flood stage 690.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 687.5 FT at Oct-16 1115 AM .ER CNDN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HPIFF/DIH6 :POOL FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 687.6 / 687.6 / 687.6 .E2 :1017: / 687.6 / 687.6 / 687.6 / 687.6 .E3 :1018: / 687.6 / 687.6 / 687.6 / 687.6 .E4 :1019: / 687.6 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.30/ 0.04/ 0.03/ 0.04/ 0.01/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Canandaigua Outlet - Chapin, NY :Flood stage 7.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 3.2 FT at Oct-16 1030 AM .ER CPNN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 3.3 / 3.3 / 3.2 .E2 :1017: / 3.2 / 3.2 / 3.2 / 3.2 .E3 :1018: / 3.2 / 3.2 / 3.2 / 3.2 .E4 :1019: / 3.2 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : : :************************************************************ :Black River - Boonville, NY :Flood stage 10.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 4.6 FT at Oct-16 1100 AM .ER BOON6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 4.6 / 4.8 / 5.0 .E2 :1017: / 5.4 / 5.7 / 5.9 / 5.9 .E3 :1018: / 5.9 / 5.7 / 5.5 / 5.3 .E4 :1019: / 5.1 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.62/ 0.17/ 0.01/ 0.01/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Moose River - McKeever, NY :Flood stage 12.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 3.8 FT at Oct-16 1030 AM .ER MCKN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 3.7 / 3.9 / 4.2 .E2 :1017: / 4.2 / 4.2 / 4.0 / 3.9 .E3 :1018: / 3.7 / 3.6 / 3.5 / 3.3 .E4 :1019: / 3.2 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.53/ 0.15/ 0.03/ 0.02/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :************************************************************ :Black River - Watertown, NY :Flood stage 10.0 ft :Latest Observed Value - 4.7 FT at Oct-16 1030 AM .ER ARTN6 20261016 E DC202610161119/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6 :STAGE FCST / 8AM / 2PM / 8PM / 2AM .E1 :1016: / 5.0 / 5.3 / 5.3 .E2 :1017: / 5.4 / 5.3 / 5.1 / 5.0 .E3 :1018: / 5.0 / 5.0 / 5.1 / 5.1 .E4 :1019: / 5.0 : Local QPF - 6 hr timestep : 0.52/ 0.09/ 0.01/ 0.01/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ 0.00/ : :******************************************************************* : : $$ :NERFC :...END of MESSAGE...