FXUS62 KTAE 231710 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 110 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Daily chances of showers and storms will continue for the next several days. Overall, rain chances are lowest for today, then increase through the workweek. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. - Hot temperatures combined with just enough humidity are expected to result in peak heat index values of 108-112F this afternoon across portions of the Florida panhandle and big bend, prompting a heat advisory in those areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 For today, some drier air will make it into our northernmost areas, which will knock a few degrees off the heat index values there this afternoon. In terms of thunderstorm chances, there is still some discrepancy in the hi-res guidance regarding coverage of storms during the afternoon hours. If storms can get going, then there will be strong instability and some mid-level dry air to work with for some strong wind gusts in the strongest storms. The SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms over a large portion of the area for this afternoon. Otherwise, it will be quite hot with many areas in the mid to upper 90s. Somewhat drier air is expected to limit most heat index values to below 108F, but one exception is expected to be across portions of the Florida panhandle and big bend close to the coast and in the Apalachicola National Forest. In those areas, a heat advisory is in effect this afternoon for peak heat index values of 108-112F. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Heading into the workweek, we'll have a large ridge over the southwest US with weak disturbances riding up and around the ridge. This kind of northwest flow regime aloft can lead to rounds of more organized clusters of showers and storms moving into our area. Thus, rain chances will gradually increase to near or above seasonal normals, but the exact timing of these disturbances is hard to pin down. If organized clusters of storms develop, then the chances for strong to potentially severe storms would increase. We'll have to watch for this potential on Monday in particular. Summertime heat and humidity will continue to roll along with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-110 range each day, hottest across Florida. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Isolated chances for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly for the DHN, ECP, and TLH terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the night. There is potential for fog development around daybreak for the TLH, VLD, and ABY terminals, as noted by a TEMPO group, however confidence is low to medium. Showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow afternoon, mainly initiating after the end of this TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are possible each day, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, decreasing in the afternoon. The main exception will be for any clusters of storms that move off the coast this week during the late afternoon or evening hours. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through the next several days. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon, though pockets of high dispersions are possible near the I-75 corridor Monday into Tuesday as mixing heights increase. Isolated storms are possible today with increasing coverage of storms again Monday and Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Some drier air moves into the area today before moistening back up again Monday into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall over the next several days. If the storms are slow-moving, then they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low- lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 95 73 92 / 20 70 40 80 Panama City 79 92 77 90 / 10 40 40 80 Dothan 74 95 72 93 / 20 60 30 70 Albany 73 95 72 93 / 20 40 30 60 Valdosta 74 96 72 93 / 20 60 50 80 Cross City 74 94 73 91 / 10 30 10 60 Apalachicola 79 91 77 89 / 10 30 40 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>015-027-112-114-115-118-127-326-426. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD